TNAG-1630-FCO40-2246-Visits-by-Hong-Kong-Government-officials-to-China--the-UK-an-1987 — Page 113

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6.

The methodology is similar to that used in CTS-1. The way this is

done is first to take stock of the existing transport system, including those

transport projects which are under construction or are committed for

construction. This will enable us to ascertain the capacity available in our

transport system. Then we project traffic growth for the future, taking into

account such factors as growth in the economy, the growth and spreac of

population, industrial cevelopment, major infrastructure developments such as urban reclamatiors, the building of new container port and new airport, etc. By relating this demand to the capacity available we will get an idea of the

likely shortfall. The Study then aims to set out and evaluate options on what

new transport infrastructure projects need to be pursued ard what new transport policies have to be introduced to meet the shortfall and resolve the

traffic problems arising from it.

koad and Rail Frojects

7.

Although CTS-2 is still ir progress and will not be completed till mid 1988, it has made some very interesting projections. For example, on cross-border traffic, it has projected that the annual total passenger trips

on rail will increase from 21 million in 1986 to

to 34 million in 1991, 43

million in 1996 and 53 million in 2001. Goods will increase from an annual tonnage of 3 million in 1986, 4.4 million in 1991, 6.4 million in 1996 and 9

million in 2001. On roads, the predictions (low projection) are

:

1986

1991

1996

2001

passengers from

1.3 m

to 4.1 m

to 6.2m

to 8.3m

goods

fron

3.8m

(tonnes)

7.8

12n

18 m