(19)
6.
The methodology is similar to that used in CTS-1. The way this is
done is first to take stock of the existing transport system, including those
transport projects which are under construction or are committed for
construction. This will enable us to ascertain the capacity available in our
transport system. Then we project traffic growth for the future, taking into
account such factors as growth in the economy, the growth and spreac of
population, industrial cevelopment, major infrastructure developments such as urban reclamatiors, the building of new container port and new airport, etc. By relating this demand to the capacity available we will get an idea of the
likely shortfall. The Study then aims to set out and evaluate options on what
new transport infrastructure projects need to be pursued ard what new transport policies have to be introduced to meet the shortfall and resolve the
traffic problems arising from it.
koad and Rail Frojects
7.
Although CTS-2 is still ir progress and will not be completed till mid 1988, it has made some very interesting projections. For example, on cross-border traffic, it has projected that the annual total passenger trips
on rail will increase from 21 million in 1986 to
to 34 million in 1991, 43
million in 1996 and 53 million in 2001. Goods will increase from an annual tonnage of 3 million in 1986, 4.4 million in 1991, 6.4 million in 1996 and 9
million in 2001. On roads, the predictions (low projection) are
:
1986
1991
1996
2001
passengers from
1.3 m
to 4.1 m
to 6.2m
to 8.3m
goods
fron
3.8m
(tonnes)
7.8
12n
18 m