TNAG-1622-FCO40-2236-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-China-1987 — Page 200

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GRS 650

CONFIDENTIAL

FM PEKING

TO ROUTINE FCO

TELNO 440

OF 130327Z MARCH 87

CONFIDENTIAL ALB 020/1

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10 MAR 1987

INFO ROUTINE MOSCOW, WASHINGTON, TOKYO, HONG KONG

SINO-SOVRET RELATIONS

1. CHINA CONTINUES TO SEE SOVIET EXPANSIONISM AS A SERIOUS THREAT TO GLOBAL STABILITY AND TO CHINA'S OWN SECURITY, THE CHINESE REACTION TO RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN EAST-WEST RELATIONS, AND PARTICULARLY TO GORBACHEV'S PROPOSAL ON MEDIUM-RANGE MISSLES, BEARS THIS OUT. THIS CONSIDERATION CONTINUES TO UNDERPIN CHINESE POLICY TOWARDS THE SOVIET UNION, MORE SPECIFICALY THE CHINESE CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THAT THERE CAN BE NO NORMALISATION OF RELATIONS WITH THE SOVIET UNION UNTHOL THE THREE OBSTACLES (CAMBODIA, AFGHANISTAN AND THE SOVIET MILITARY PRESENCE UN MONGOLIWA AND ON THE SINO-SOVIET BORDER) HAVE BEEN REMOVED.

2. GORBACHEV'S SPEECH #N VLADEVOSTOK LAST JULY MADE CLEAR SOVIET WILLINGNESS TO IMPROVE RELATIONS. DENG XHBAOPING REPLIED PUBLICLY UW AN AMERICAN TELEVISION INTERVIEW TWO MONTHS LATER THAT CHINA ALSO WISHED TO SEE AN IMPROVEMENT HW RELATIONS. BUT, THMS COULD NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL THE SOVIET UNION REMOVED THE MAIN OBSTACLE OF SUPPORT FOR THE WIETNAMESE OCCUPATION OF CAMBODIA. OTHER CHINESE LEADERS HAVE SINCE REPEATED THAT CHINA BELIEVES THIS PROBLEM TO BE THE MAJOR

OBSTACLE TO IMPROVED RELATIONS.

3. GORBACHEV'S SPEECH, AND DENG'S REACTHON, HAVE NOT LED TO ANY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN SHINO-SOVIET RELATIONS. IT WAS AGREED IN OCTOBER LAST YEAR THAT THE TALKS TO DELIMIT THE BORDER, WHICH HAD BEEN SUSPENDED IN 1979;, WOULD RECOMMENCE. BUT THE CHINESE HAVE STATE THAT THEY SEE NO LINKAGE BETWEEN THE BORDER TALKS AND THE PROCESS OF NORMALISATION. THE FIRST ROUND OF BORDER TALKS WAS HELD PN MOSCOW FROM 9 23 FEBRUARY. THESE TALKS WERE PRELIMINARY AND T APPEARS THAT SUBSTANTIVE DISCUSSIONS WILL NOT TAKE PLACE UNTIL JOINT INSPECTION TEAMS HAVE TOURED THE DISPUTED AREAS. BOTH SIDES ACKNOWLEDGE THAT AN AGREEMENT WILL NOT BE REACHED FOR SOME YEARS.

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4. THE NEXT ROUND OF NORMALISATION TALKS IS DUE TO BE HELD IN MOSCOW IN APRIL. WE SEE NO REASON TO EXPECT THAT SUBSTANTIAL PROGRESS WILL BE MADE. BRIEFINGS GIVEN TO SHULTZ BY CHINESE LEADER IN EARLY MARCH SUPPORT THIS VIEW.

5. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS IN IMPROVEMENT OF RELATIONS, ECOMONIC, TECHNOLOGICAL, SCIENTIFIC AND CULTURAL RELATIONS HAVE CONTINUED TO DEVELOP. THE SOVIET SHARE OF THE CHINESE IMPORT MARKET HNCREASED FROM 2.9% ** 1985 TO 3.57% IN 1986.

FOR A VARIETY OF REASONS IT IS LIKELY THAT THE RATE OF INCREASE WILL

BE SLIGHTLY SLOWER IN 1987. ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT COOPERATION HAS

ALSO STARTED, AFTER PROTRACTED NEGOTIATIONS, WITH SOVIET INVOLVEMENT

CONFIDENTIAL

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