TNAG-1621-FCO40-2235-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-China-1987 — Page 24

LIU BINYAN. THIS DIFFERENCE COULD POINT TO CONTINUING CONFLICT

WITHIN THE LEADERSHIP ABOUT THE SCOPE AND NATURE OF THE CAMPAIGN.

THIS IS THE WINTERPRETATION OF SOME PEOPLE HERE. BUT IT COULD MEAN

THAT THE INTERNAL DOCUMENTS ON WHICH EDITORS AND JOURNALISTS ARE

DRAWING ARE RATHER SHARPER IN TONE THAN THE WORDS WHICH ZHAO NECESSARILY HAD TO USE IN SEEKING TO REAASSURE OPINION AT HOME AND ABROAD. #MYSELF THINK THAT THE DIFFERENCE IS TO BE EXPLAINED BY

THE CO-EXISTENCE FOR THE LEADERSHIP OF TWO OBJECTIVES., TO HIT OUT HARD AT SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE PARTY WHO HAVE ERRED., BUT TO PERSUADE PEOPLE, BOTH AT HOME AND ABROAD, THAT THE ECONOMIC COMPONENT OF THE REFORM PROGRAMME WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE CAMPAIGN.

5. DOUBT THE INTERPRETATION OF THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN SAYING AND

WRITING (E.G. IN THE BRITISH PRESS) THAT DENG HASD BEEN FORCED TO

GINE GROUND TO CONSERVATHINES WITHIN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE

LEADERSHIP OR THAT HE STRUCK A BARGAIN WITH SUCH PEOPLE UNDER WHICH

HU WOULD BE SACRIFICED IN RETURN FOR THE PRESERVATION OF ECONOMIC

REFORM. THE LEADERSHIP AS A WHOLE APPEARED TO PERCEVE A THREAT TO

THE AUTHORITY OF THE PARTY. DN THAT CONTEXT ALL #TS MEMBERS ARE

CONSERVATIVES. OF THOSE WHOSE CONSERVATISM IS SAID TO GO WIDER, L XHANNAN IS IN SHANGHAI FOR THE WINTER, CHEN YUN HIS, I HAVE HEARD, ALING., AND PENG ZHEN HAS BEEN TRYING TO OBTAIN MORE (NOT LESS) OF

AN INDEPENDENT ROLE FOR THE NATIONAL PEOPLES CONGRESS AND ITS

STANDING COMMITTEE. THE MILITARY (YANG SHANGKUN, YANG DEZHK AND YU

QIULIN) DID NOT LIKE HU. BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT

ANY OF THESE PEOPLE HAVE HAD SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT THE BROAD

DIRECTION OF ECONOMIC REFORM. IN ANY CASE, ALL WHO MIGHT BE

CONSERVATIVES AMONG MEMBERS OF THE POLITBURO WERE PRESENT WHEN ZHAO

SPOKE REASSURINGLY ON 29 JANUARY ABOUT THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE

CAMPAIGN AGAINST BOURGEOIS LIBERALISATIHON.

6. THAT SAID, THE REFORMERS AND DENG PERSONALLY HAVE HAD TO ACCEPT SERIOUS LOSSES FROM THOSE EVENTS. CHINESE POLITICS HAVE REVEALED

THEMSELVES AS MARKEDLY LESS STABLE THAN HAD COME TO BE BELIEVED IN

THE GENERAL WISDOM. PLANS FOR AN ORDERLY SUCCESSION ARE N

DISARRAY. DENG'S OWN JUDGEMENT, IN FIRST PICKING AND THEN STANDING BY HU, HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE SUSPECT. THE REFORM PROGRAMME HAS, AS THE ANXIOUS ATTEMPTS TO REASSURE PROVE, BEEN BROUGHT INTO QUESTION.

DENG MUST HAVE PERCEIVED THAT THESE WOULD BE THE INEVITABLE

CONSEQUENCES OF SO AN ABRUPT DISMISSAL OF HU. 1 DO NOT BELIEVE HE

WOULD HAVE TAKEN THAT DECISION UNLESS HIS OWN DISSATISFACTION HAD BEEN SO GREAT THAT HE WAS CONVINCED HU HAD TO GO. OTHERS WERE

ALMOST CERTAINLY NAGGING HIM. BUT I DO NOT MYSELF BELIEVE THAT

THEIR NAGGING WOULD HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE UNLESS HE HAD HIMSELF

FINALLY LOST CONFIDENCE IN HU.

7. AS TO THE SUCCESS PON, ALL WE KNOW IS THAT ZHAO IS NOW DUE TO VISIT EASTERN EUROPE IN JUNE AS BOTH PREMIER AND ACTING

GENERAL-SECRETARY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HE WILL NOT BE ELECTED AS

GENERAL-SECRETARY UNTIL THE OCTOBER PARTY CONGRESS AND THAT, PENDING

CONFIDENTIAL

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