LIU BINYAN. THIS DIFFERENCE COULD POINT TO CONTINUING CONFLICT
WITHIN THE LEADERSHIP ABOUT THE SCOPE AND NATURE OF THE CAMPAIGN.
THIS IS THE WINTERPRETATION OF SOME PEOPLE HERE. BUT IT COULD MEAN
THAT THE INTERNAL DOCUMENTS ON WHICH EDITORS AND JOURNALISTS ARE
DRAWING ARE RATHER SHARPER IN TONE THAN THE WORDS WHICH ZHAO NECESSARILY HAD TO USE IN SEEKING TO REAASSURE OPINION AT HOME AND ABROAD. #MYSELF THINK THAT THE DIFFERENCE IS TO BE EXPLAINED BY
THE CO-EXISTENCE FOR THE LEADERSHIP OF TWO OBJECTIVES., TO HIT OUT HARD AT SENIOR MEMBERS OF THE PARTY WHO HAVE ERRED., BUT TO PERSUADE PEOPLE, BOTH AT HOME AND ABROAD, THAT THE ECONOMIC COMPONENT OF THE REFORM PROGRAMME WILL NOT BE AFFECTED BY THE CAMPAIGN.
5. DOUBT THE INTERPRETATION OF THOSE WHO HAVE BEEN SAYING AND
WRITING (E.G. IN THE BRITISH PRESS) THAT DENG HASD BEEN FORCED TO
GINE GROUND TO CONSERVATHINES WITHIN THE UPPER REACHES OF THE
LEADERSHIP OR THAT HE STRUCK A BARGAIN WITH SUCH PEOPLE UNDER WHICH
HU WOULD BE SACRIFICED IN RETURN FOR THE PRESERVATION OF ECONOMIC
REFORM. THE LEADERSHIP AS A WHOLE APPEARED TO PERCEVE A THREAT TO
THE AUTHORITY OF THE PARTY. DN THAT CONTEXT ALL #TS MEMBERS ARE
CONSERVATIVES. OF THOSE WHOSE CONSERVATISM IS SAID TO GO WIDER, L XHANNAN IS IN SHANGHAI FOR THE WINTER, CHEN YUN HIS, I HAVE HEARD, ALING., AND PENG ZHEN HAS BEEN TRYING TO OBTAIN MORE (NOT LESS) OF
AN INDEPENDENT ROLE FOR THE NATIONAL PEOPLES CONGRESS AND ITS
STANDING COMMITTEE. THE MILITARY (YANG SHANGKUN, YANG DEZHK AND YU
QIULIN) DID NOT LIKE HU. BUT HAVE SEEN NO EVIDENCE TO SUGGEST THAT
ANY OF THESE PEOPLE HAVE HAD SERIOUS DOUBTS ABOUT THE BROAD
DIRECTION OF ECONOMIC REFORM. IN ANY CASE, ALL WHO MIGHT BE
CONSERVATIVES AMONG MEMBERS OF THE POLITBURO WERE PRESENT WHEN ZHAO
SPOKE REASSURINGLY ON 29 JANUARY ABOUT THE LIMITED NATURE OF THE
CAMPAIGN AGAINST BOURGEOIS LIBERALISATIHON.
6. THAT SAID, THE REFORMERS AND DENG PERSONALLY HAVE HAD TO ACCEPT SERIOUS LOSSES FROM THOSE EVENTS. CHINESE POLITICS HAVE REVEALED
THEMSELVES AS MARKEDLY LESS STABLE THAN HAD COME TO BE BELIEVED IN
THE GENERAL WISDOM. PLANS FOR AN ORDERLY SUCCESSION ARE N
DISARRAY. DENG'S OWN JUDGEMENT, IN FIRST PICKING AND THEN STANDING BY HU, HAS BEEN SHOWN TO BE SUSPECT. THE REFORM PROGRAMME HAS, AS THE ANXIOUS ATTEMPTS TO REASSURE PROVE, BEEN BROUGHT INTO QUESTION.
DENG MUST HAVE PERCEIVED THAT THESE WOULD BE THE INEVITABLE
CONSEQUENCES OF SO AN ABRUPT DISMISSAL OF HU. 1 DO NOT BELIEVE HE
WOULD HAVE TAKEN THAT DECISION UNLESS HIS OWN DISSATISFACTION HAD BEEN SO GREAT THAT HE WAS CONVINCED HU HAD TO GO. OTHERS WERE
ALMOST CERTAINLY NAGGING HIM. BUT I DO NOT MYSELF BELIEVE THAT
THEIR NAGGING WOULD HAVE BEEN EFFECTIVE UNLESS HE HAD HIMSELF
FINALLY LOST CONFIDENCE IN HU.
7. AS TO THE SUCCESS PON, ALL WE KNOW IS THAT ZHAO IS NOW DUE TO VISIT EASTERN EUROPE IN JUNE AS BOTH PREMIER AND ACTING
GENERAL-SECRETARY. THIS SUGGESTS THAT HE WILL NOT BE ELECTED AS
GENERAL-SECRETARY UNTIL THE OCTOBER PARTY CONGRESS AND THAT, PENDING
CONFIDENTIAL
/THIS