TNAG-1621-FCO40-2235-Relations-between-Hong-Kong-and-China-1987 — Page 149

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degree of liberalization.

the Party, his failure was

continue unchecked to the

In the eyes of Deng and important elements of

probably to allow the student demonstrations to

point where they threatened public order and

Besides Hu, the president and

the Party's control of events.

vice-president of Hefei university, where the demonstrations started with

the latter's encouragement, have been dismissed. The dismissal of the

head of the propaganda department of the Party is also rumoured.

Implications

4. Hu was expected to retire at the Party Congress later this year.

This, and Hu's personal idiosyncracies, means that his departure from

power will not in itself significantly alter China's development in the

period ahead. However, the sudden leadership change in circumstances of

political difficulty, the other dismissals and the current press campaign

against 'bourgeois liberalisation' indicate a check to the reform process

and а serious reverse to the aspirations (officially encouraged in the

summer) of intellectuals and students for greater self-expression. There

have been similar checks to liberalisation in the past, notably the

suppression of the 'Spiritual Pollution' campaign of 1983/84. But this

reverse appears to be more serious in its consequences. Intellectuals

and students, to whom the leadership are looking as important actors in

the reform process, will once again feel let down, alienated and

disinclined to take risks to improve China's economic performance.

5.

(

leadership)

However, the reform process as defined by the leadership will

continue. The NCNA statement on Hu's resignation emphasised that "the

all round reforms and the policies of opening to the rest of the world

and invigorating the domestic economy would continue" and Deng himself

reassured a visiting Japanese about foreign investment. But the reform

programme is now likely to be pursued more cautiously. The government

announced this week that the prices of basic commodities would not be

changed this year, thus removing for the time being the central element

of price reform from the economic agenda. Other particularly sensitive

aspects of the political and economic reform programme may now be

postponed.

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