1
UK CONFIDENTIAL
CAN/AUS/UK/US EYES ONLY
degree of liberalization.
the Party, his failure was
continue unchecked to the
In the eyes of Deng and important elements of
probably to allow the student demonstrations to
point where they threatened public order and
Besides Hu, the president and
the Party's control of events.
vice-president of Hefei university, where the demonstrations started with
the latter's encouragement, have been dismissed. The dismissal of the
head of the propaganda department of the Party is also rumoured.
Implications
4. Hu was expected to retire at the Party Congress later this year.
This, and Hu's personal idiosyncracies, means that his departure from
power will not in itself significantly alter China's development in the
period ahead. However, the sudden leadership change in circumstances of
political difficulty, the other dismissals and the current press campaign
against 'bourgeois liberalisation' indicate a check to the reform process
and а serious reverse to the aspirations (officially encouraged in the
summer) of intellectuals and students for greater self-expression. There
have been similar checks to liberalisation in the past, notably the
suppression of the 'Spiritual Pollution' campaign of 1983/84. But this
reverse appears to be more serious in its consequences. Intellectuals
and students, to whom the leadership are looking as important actors in
the reform process, will once again feel let down, alienated and
disinclined to take risks to improve China's economic performance.
5.
(
leadership)
However, the reform process as defined by the leadership will
continue. The NCNA statement on Hu's resignation emphasised that "the
all round reforms and the policies of opening to the rest of the world
and invigorating the domestic economy would continue" and Deng himself
reassured a visiting Japanese about foreign investment. But the reform
programme is now likely to be pursued more cautiously. The government
announced this week that the prices of basic commodities would not be
changed this year, thus removing for the time being the central element
of price reform from the economic agenda. Other particularly sensitive
aspects of the political and economic reform programme may now be
postponed.
2
CAN/AUS/UK/US EYES ONLY
UK CONFIDENTIAL