TNAG-1598-FCO40-2191-Hong-Kong-1987-Review-of-Representative-Government-1987 — Page 71

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CONFIDENTIAL

04/2

MR BUTLER'S LUNCH WITH THE HONG KONG ASSOCIATION:

NOTES ON HONG KONG ISSUES

14 DECEMBER

HRB 011/2

15 DEC 1987

691

Confidence and Emigration

-

L :

1. Confidence in Hong Kong remains good! Economy is performing

well estimated 11% growth in GDP in 1986, at least 12% expected in 1987. Some signs of slowing down emerged before Stock Market collapse. Property prices remain stable. Indications are that about 35,000 emigrant visas may be issued in 1987, compared with

about 22,000 in 1986. There are a number of reasons for this,

including increased emigration opportunities in some leading recipient countries, particularly Canada and Australia. Many family

reunion cases. Concern about the future no doubt one factor

influencing decisions, but by no means the only one. Many people return to Hong Kong after obtaining an overseas passport. (Draw on

above as necessary).

Review of representative government

2.

As promised in 1984, review of representative government now in hand. Green Paper in May, independent Survey Office report on public response in November. White Paper will be published by Hong Kong Government in February 1988. Most contentious issue is question of introduction of directly elected element into the legislature. Line to take: no decisions have been made. But Governor's impression of findings given in November news conference

was

(a) many in community do not have a view or have not put one

forward;

(b) most of those who do take an interest believe there

(c)

should be direct elections before 1997;

on question of introduction of direct elections in 1988, community is sharply divided.

Review is genuine review. No interference from Chinese.

CONFIDENTIAL