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ROBADA
CONFIDENTIAL
04/2
MR BUTLER'S LUNCH WITH THE HONG KONG ASSOCIATION:
NOTES ON HONG KONG ISSUES
14 DECEMBER
HRB 011/2
15 DEC 1987
691
Confidence and Emigration
-
L :
1. Confidence in Hong Kong remains good! Economy is performing
well estimated 11% growth in GDP in 1986, at least 12% expected in 1987. Some signs of slowing down emerged before Stock Market collapse. Property prices remain stable. Indications are that about 35,000 emigrant visas may be issued in 1987, compared with
about 22,000 in 1986. There are a number of reasons for this,
including increased emigration opportunities in some leading recipient countries, particularly Canada and Australia. Many family
reunion cases. Concern about the future no doubt one factor
influencing decisions, but by no means the only one. Many people return to Hong Kong after obtaining an overseas passport. (Draw on
above as necessary).
Review of representative government
2.
As promised in 1984, review of representative government now in hand. Green Paper in May, independent Survey Office report on public response in November. White Paper will be published by Hong Kong Government in February 1988. Most contentious issue is question of introduction of directly elected element into the legislature. Line to take: no decisions have been made. But Governor's impression of findings given in November news conference
was
(a) many in community do not have a view or have not put one
forward;
(b) most of those who do take an interest believe there
(c)
should be direct elections before 1997;
on question of introduction of direct elections in 1988, community is sharply divided.
Review is genuine review. No interference from Chinese.
CONFIDENTIAL