TNAG-1597-FCO40-2182-Hong-Kong-1987-Review-of-Representative-Government-1987 — Page 185

MONTHS IN ADVANCE OF PUBLICATION.

(THE POSSIBLE MEETINGS BETWEEN

THE SECRETARY OF STATE AND WU IN MARCH AND APRIL AND APPROACHES BY SIR R. EVANS COULD ALL BE USED FOR THAT PURPOSE.)

(11)

THE TREATMENT OF ELECTIONS TO THE LEGISLATURE WOULD NEED PARTICULARLY CLOSE DISCUSSION. THIS MIGHT BE ON THE BASIS OF A PAPER WHICH WOULD IN EFFECT BE AN ADVANCE EXTRACT FROM THE DRAFT GREEN PAPER (BUT NOT EXPLICITLY PRESENTED AS SUCH),

(ITI) THE FULL TEXT OF THE GREEN PAPER WOULD BE PASSED TO THE CHINESE A WEEK OR SO IN ADVANCE OF PUBLICATION. IT WOULD (NEXT WORD UNDERLINED) NOT BE PRESENTED AS A DRAFT. BUT WE SHOULD HAVE TO RECOGNISE (AS WE DID OVER THE SEPTEMBER 1984 WHITE PAPER ON THE JOINT DECLARATION) THAT IF THE CHINESE CHOSE TO PRESS FOR TEXTUAL CHANGES THIS WOULD BE VERY DIFFICULT TO RESIST AND COULD

LEAD TO SOME DELAY IN PUBLICATION.

23.

IT IS TOO EARLY TO CONSIDER HOW THE WHITE PAPER WILL HAVE TO BE HANDLED WITH THE CHINESE. THIS WILL DEPEND ON THE NATURE OF THE PROPOSALS WHICH IT PUTS FORWARD. HOWEVER, WE MUST RECOGNIZE THAT THE WAY IN WHICH THE GREEN PAPER IS HANDLED WILL BE A PRECEDENT FOR THE WHITE PAPER AND THAT WE ARE UNLIKELY TO BE ABLE

TO BE LESS FORTHCOMING WITH IT THAN WE HAVE BEEN WITH THE GREEN

PAPER.

POSSIBLE OUTCOMES OF THE 1987 REVIEW

24.

THE 1987 REVIEW AND, IN PARTICULAR, THE ISSUE OF DIRECT ELECTIONS TO THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL, HAS ALREADY STIMULATED CONSIDERABLE PUBLIC DEBATE IN HONG KONG. OPINIONS ON THE QUESTION OF DIRECT ELECTIONS ARE DIVIDED. ON THE ONE HAND, THERE ARE THOSE WHO OPPOSE IN PRINCIPLE THE INTRODUCTION OF DIRECT ELECTIONS SEMICOLON ON THE OTHER, THERE ARE THOSE WHO ARGUE FOR THE INCLUSION OF A NUMBER OF DIRECTLY ELECTED SEATS IN THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL

IN 1988. BETWEEN THESE POLES OF OPINION, VIEWS ARE MUCH MORE DIFFUSE, PARTICULARLY ON THE QUESTION OF WHEN DIRECT ELECTIONS SHOULD BE INTRODUCED. IT IS BY NO MEANS CERTAIN THAT A CLEAR CONSENSUS ON THIS ISSUE WILL EMERGE DURING THE COURSE OF THE REVIEW. THE CHINESE, FOR THEIR PART, WILL DOUBTLESS CONTINUE TO MAKE KNOWN THEIR OWN MISGIVINGS ABOUT DIRECT ELECTIONS AND TO INFLUENCE PUBLIC OPINION. THIS COULD AFFECT THE OUTCOME EITHER WAY, DEPENDING ON THE SUBTLETY OF THEIR TACTICS.

25.

AT PRESENT IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT THE OUTCOME OF THE REVIEW

ON THE DIRECT ELECTIONS ISSUE WILL BE ALONG ONE OF FOUR POSSIBLE

LINES :

(1) WE MIGHT CONCLUDE THAT THE MAJORITY OF PEOPLE IN HONG KONG WERE OPPOSED TO THE INTRODUCTION OF DIRECT ELECTIONS IN 1988. THIS WOULD CLEARLY BE WELCOMED BY THE CHINESE. IT WOULD BE IMPORTANT, HOWEVER, THAT THIS ASSESSMENT WAS WIDELY ACCEPTED IN HONG KONG, SO THAT WE COULD DEFEND OURSELVES AGAINST THE CRITICISM THAT WE HAD DEFERRED TO CHINESE WISHES. -

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