TNAG-1535-FCO40-2099-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-repatriation-1986 — Page 37

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decline: in current conditions, both hypotheses seem

likely. The countries and territories of first asylum,

are which are also aware that many of the new arrivals were

motivated mainly or partly by economic motives, are

likely to maintain their objections to absorbing the

inflows and will undoubtedly step up pressures for a

solution.

8.

Recent diplomatic exchanges indicate that certain

governments sharing this concern have been holding

informal discussions at official level. One tactic would

be to attempt to apply pressure to Vietnam to assist in

restricting outflow. In practice, the only way in which

Vietnam could respond would be to increase pupnishments

for those caught trying to escape; the prevailing

ideological climate and economic achievements of Vietnam

are unlikely to improve significantly in the short or

medium term. In addition, a continuation of the conflict

in Cambodia is likely to continue to stimulate the

departure of a number of Vietnamese men seeking to evade

conscription. Such measures of humane deterrence as have

been adopted hitherto have not proved sufficient to

counterbalance the asylum-seekers' perception of the

desirability of departure and the favourable chances of

securing resettlement.

9. The above informal exchanges have also touched on the

possibility of involuntary repatriation.

No detailed

proposals for concerted action have yet, emerged from the

above informal exchanges, but the subject is likely to be

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