DER LIC
CONFIDENTIAL
decline: in current conditions, both hypotheses seem
likely. The countries and territories of first asylum,
are which are also aware that many of the new arrivals were
motivated mainly or partly by economic motives, are
likely to maintain their objections to absorbing the
inflows and will undoubtedly step up pressures for a
solution.
8.
Recent diplomatic exchanges indicate that certain
governments sharing this concern have been holding
informal discussions at official level. One tactic would
be to attempt to apply pressure to Vietnam to assist in
restricting outflow. In practice, the only way in which
Vietnam could respond would be to increase pupnishments
for those caught trying to escape; the prevailing
ideological climate and economic achievements of Vietnam
are unlikely to improve significantly in the short or
medium term. In addition, a continuation of the conflict
in Cambodia is likely to continue to stimulate the
departure of a number of Vietnamese men seeking to evade
conscription. Such measures of humane deterrence as have
been adopted hitherto have not proved sufficient to
counterbalance the asylum-seekers' perception of the
desirability of departure and the favourable chances of
securing resettlement.
9. The above informal exchanges have also touched on the
possibility of involuntary repatriation.
No detailed
proposals for concerted action have yet, emerged from the
above informal exchanges, but the subject is likely to be
CONFIDENTIAL