CONFIDENTIAL
(c) the US may
refugees in
resettlement
run short this autum
Hong Kong who meet its
criteria
they
of
own
as
are
at present defined.
11. If in 1987 we were dependent only on the resettlement
programmes of these three countries, and if even these
might well be reduced, what would be the consequence for refugee population levels?
It
is probably realistic to
assume that 1987
1987 arrivals will be at the higher rate seen so far in 1986 (this rate is almost twice that of 1985, but
about the same as in 1984). On this basis some 2,100
refugees might arrive in Hong Kong next year. Taken together with a net increase of some 400 resulting from births and deaths in the camps, 2,500 departures would thus be required to keep the population in the camps from increasing.
the best the expected reduction in 1987 is likely to be small. Even this would be a disappointment for Hong Kong and a potential source of friction with Hong Kong opinion. A fall of more than 1,000 (30%) in the number resettled by the three major countries would result
in the number of refugees in Hong Kong starting to increase. Any such increase would be received very badly
in Hong Kong. Critics in the Hong Kong Government (Officials and Unofficials) and the population at large would lay the blame at our door, arguing that we had failed to assist the territory to solve its problems. Such ill-feeling could of course spill over into other important aspects of UK/Hong Kong relations.
A
or even a standstill
G
12. Any increase
in the overall
camp population would result in a rise in the numbers in
closed camps, since all new arrivals are put in them. The actual number in closed camps is currently falling (from
4,863 to 4,553 in January to May 1986) as resettlement from
these camps is going well. (Even so the percentage of Hong
Kong's refugee population in closed camps is in fact rising
from 48% to 60% of the total in the first 5 months
as open camp refugees also continue to
1986
of
be
CONFIDENTIAL
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