TNAG-1534-FCO40-2098-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-repatriation-1986 — Page 134

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CONFIDENTIAL

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MEANWHILE HONG KONG'S ARRIVAL RATE HAS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED

THIS YEAR. IF IT IS MAINTAINED AT THIS LEVEL NEXT YEAR HONG

KONG'S VIETNAMESE REFUGEE POPULATION MAY WELL INCREASE BRINGING

DIFFICULTIES FOR HONG KONG AND SERIOUS CRITICISM OF HMG.

WE THEN REVIEW BRIEFLY POSSIBLE OPTIONS FOR FUTURE

ACTION AND FOCUS ON TWO IN PARTICULAR INCREASED RESETTLEMENT

AND INVOLUNTARY REPATRIATION.

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4.

ON INVOLUNTARY REPATRIATION WE SHALL NOTE THAT OUR

POSITION ON VIETNAM HAS NOT/NOT CHANGED SINCE THE SECRETARY OF

STATE CONCLUDED LAST MAY THAT WE SHOULD NOT/NOT PURSUE BILATERAL

DISCUSSIONS WITH THE VIETNAMESE ON REPATRIATION. THE PROSPECTS

OF OUR OBTAINING REASONABLE ASSURANCES FROM THEM ARE ALSO NO

BETTER. BUT WE NEED TO DO SOMETHING, AND RESETTLEMENT IS NOT ENOUGH (BECAUSE OF COMPASSION FATIGUE, DIMINISHING RETURNS ON REPEATED DIPLOMATIC CAMPAIGNS, CONTINUING DIFFICULTIES FOR PLACES OF FIRST ASYLUM, DECREASING PERCENTAGE OF DISPLACED PERSONS QUALIFYING FOR REFUGEE STATUS AND THUS FOR "RESETTLEMENT, AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE RESETTLEMENT CREATING A BIGGER PULL FACTOR).

WE NEED TO FIND A WAY OF TACKLING THE PROBLEM WHICH MIGHT

MINIMISE DOMESTIC POLITICAL RISKS FOR HMG WHILE MAXIMISING.

PRESSURE ON THE VIETNAMESE TO COOPERATE. WE PROPOSED THAT WE

SHOULD NOW BEGIN EXPLORING WITH UNHCR AND THOSE COUNTRIES

INVOLVED IN THE INDO-CHINESE REFUGEE PROBLEM (MAIN RESETTLEMENT COUNTRIES AND PLACES OF FIRST ASYLUM) THE POSSIBILITY OF A

MULTILATERAL APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM. THE FIRST STEP WOULD BE TO

ESTABLISH A COMMON VIEW OF THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM AND POSSIBLE

SOLUTIONS. WE THINK RESETTLEMENT AND FIRST ASYLUM COUNTRIES ARE

BECOMING MORE INTERESTED IN EXAMINING ALTERNATIVES TO THIRD

COUNTRY RESETTLEMENT. WE SHOULD EXPLORE WITH THEM AND UNHCR TO

WHAT EXTEND INDO-CHINESE MIGRANTS MIGHT NOW BE DIVIDED INTO

ECONOMIC MIGRANTS AND GENUINE REFUGEES, AND WHAT POSSIBLE

ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS MIGHT BE IDENTIFIED FOR THESE 2 GROUPS. AS

A SECOND STAGE WE WILL TRY TO IDENTIFY OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE,

INCLUDING IF POSSIBLE A COLLECTIVE APPROACH TO VIETNAM ON THE

RETURN OF ECONOMIC MIGRANTS ON THE CONDITION THAT RETURNEES WOULD

NOT BE HARSHLY TREATED. WE NOTE HOWEVER IN OUR SUBMISSION THAT

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CONFIDENTIAL