15.
CONFIDENTIAL
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MEANWHILE HONG KONG'S ARRIVAL RATE HAS SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASED
THIS YEAR. IF IT IS MAINTAINED AT THIS LEVEL NEXT YEAR HONG
KONG'S VIETNAMESE REFUGEE POPULATION MAY WELL INCREASE BRINGING
DIFFICULTIES FOR HONG KONG AND SERIOUS CRITICISM OF HMG.
WE THEN REVIEW BRIEFLY POSSIBLE OPTIONS FOR FUTURE
ACTION AND FOCUS ON TWO IN PARTICULAR INCREASED RESETTLEMENT
AND INVOLUNTARY REPATRIATION.
3.
4.
ON INVOLUNTARY REPATRIATION WE SHALL NOTE THAT OUR
POSITION ON VIETNAM HAS NOT/NOT CHANGED SINCE THE SECRETARY OF
STATE CONCLUDED LAST MAY THAT WE SHOULD NOT/NOT PURSUE BILATERAL
DISCUSSIONS WITH THE VIETNAMESE ON REPATRIATION. THE PROSPECTS
OF OUR OBTAINING REASONABLE ASSURANCES FROM THEM ARE ALSO NO
BETTER. BUT WE NEED TO DO SOMETHING, AND RESETTLEMENT IS NOT ENOUGH (BECAUSE OF COMPASSION FATIGUE, DIMINISHING RETURNS ON REPEATED DIPLOMATIC CAMPAIGNS, CONTINUING DIFFICULTIES FOR PLACES OF FIRST ASYLUM, DECREASING PERCENTAGE OF DISPLACED PERSONS QUALIFYING FOR REFUGEE STATUS AND THUS FOR "RESETTLEMENT, AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF MORE RESETTLEMENT CREATING A BIGGER PULL FACTOR).
WE NEED TO FIND A WAY OF TACKLING THE PROBLEM WHICH MIGHT
MINIMISE DOMESTIC POLITICAL RISKS FOR HMG WHILE MAXIMISING.
PRESSURE ON THE VIETNAMESE TO COOPERATE. WE PROPOSED THAT WE
SHOULD NOW BEGIN EXPLORING WITH UNHCR AND THOSE COUNTRIES
INVOLVED IN THE INDO-CHINESE REFUGEE PROBLEM (MAIN RESETTLEMENT COUNTRIES AND PLACES OF FIRST ASYLUM) THE POSSIBILITY OF A
MULTILATERAL APPROACH TO THE PROBLEM. THE FIRST STEP WOULD BE TO
ESTABLISH A COMMON VIEW OF THE NATURE OF THE PROBLEM AND POSSIBLE
SOLUTIONS. WE THINK RESETTLEMENT AND FIRST ASYLUM COUNTRIES ARE
BECOMING MORE INTERESTED IN EXAMINING ALTERNATIVES TO THIRD
COUNTRY RESETTLEMENT. WE SHOULD EXPLORE WITH THEM AND UNHCR TO
WHAT EXTEND INDO-CHINESE MIGRANTS MIGHT NOW BE DIVIDED INTO
ECONOMIC MIGRANTS AND GENUINE REFUGEES, AND WHAT POSSIBLE
ALTERNATIVE SOLUTIONS MIGHT BE IDENTIFIED FOR THESE 2 GROUPS. AS
A SECOND STAGE WE WILL TRY TO IDENTIFY OPTIONS FOR THE FUTURE,
INCLUDING IF POSSIBLE A COLLECTIVE APPROACH TO VIETNAM ON THE
RETURN OF ECONOMIC MIGRANTS ON THE CONDITION THAT RETURNEES WOULD
NOT BE HARSHLY TREATED. WE NOTE HOWEVER IN OUR SUBMISSION THAT
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CONFIDENTIAL