TNAG-1461-FCO40-1987-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-Hong-Kong--Gibraltar-and-1986 — Page 97

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is worth money in itself to the local economy. A policy of progressive disengagement from the dependencies, even in the absence of any immediate territorial claims could, unless well

handled, undermine local confidence, increase the dangers of

criminal activity on the islands and upset the United States.

Adequate preparation for the transition to a new security arrangement underlines the importance of not spoiling the ship for a ha'porth of tar- a British disease.

23 The task of convincing the US that it is in their interests

to fill the security gap left by a UK withdrawal will present a

number of difficult diplomatic problems. It is preferable

however to do this by a process of discussion and negotiation than by presenting them with a fait accompli on the timetable for our withdrawal. The latter would certainly ensure that the US

were forced to consider their options and interests in relation to the dependencies, but it would also be unacceptably damaging

to the bilateral relationship. In convincing the US of the

seriousness of our intentions and the sense of a disengagement

policy the following factors would be important: a) we should

avoid establishing too tight a deadline for disengagement, b) a

credible programme should be devised for each dependency designed to set it firmly and clearly on its own feet, c) we should

consistently deploy the valid case, relevant particularly to the

Caribbean, on the present imbalance between UK and US interests

and responsibilities in the region, d) we should be prepared to

accept a continuing responsibility in Bermuda after independence

in view of our considerable interests there, and e) we should not

expect the US to take over all our security responsibilities in the dependencies before independence, but should however seek a

gradual build up of US security involvement in the intervening

period.

Economic Aspects

24 The Caribbean and Bermudan economies are either already

strong enough for independence to be viable or, if not yet, they

can be strengthened sufficiently. The attached table (Annex B) makes some simple comparisons between the six possible candidates

for independence, Commonwealth states made independent since 1973

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