CONFIDENTIAL #B
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is about to start. But despite these planned
improvements, the SSEZ's dependence on Hong Kong is likely to continue for the reasons discussed in the following paragraph.
41.
As Hong Kong and the SSEZ are very close to each other, the services provided by any international seaport or airport in the SSEZ will have to compete with similar facilities at Kwai Chung and Kai Tak of Hong Kong. It is very unlikely that shipping companies and airline companies will call twice (first at Kwai Chung or Kai Tak, and then at ports in the SSEZ). Commercial considerations will mean that most shipping companies and airlines serving the region will prefer Kwai Chung and Kai Tak to facilities in the SSEZ. Thus the deep-water ports and international airport in the SSEZ might, apart from serving the SSEZ's own needs, capture only the spill-over portion of the demand for such external transport infrastructure in Hong Kong. In this regard,
under-utilization of these facilities in the SSEZ is quite likely and it is difficult to be optimistic about their commercial viability.
42.
Thus, the SSEZ appears to have a long way to go before it can begin to resemble Hong Kong. Considering that Hong Kong is moving ahead at a fairly rapid rate, the SSEZ may even have difficulty in preventing the gap in terms of economic development which now exists between the two places from further widening. It seems likely to be a long time before the SSEZ can provide adequate facilities to enable China to reduce its dependence on Hong Kong.
G.F. 326
CONFIDENTIAL #B
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