TNAG-1444-FCO40-1928-Constitutional-development-in-Hong-Kong-1986 — Page 34

SECRET

MEETING OF OD (K): 19 NOVEMBER 1986

Points to Make

REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT

1. No decision needed at this stage. Paper is progress report. But most difficult Hong Kong issue facing us between now and 1988. Will require most careful handling

with Chinese.

2. Key question will be treatment of direct elections in

1987 review and in drafting of Basic Law. Particularly sensitive problem of timing. Hong Kong Government must produce White Paper before end of 1987, making its proposals

on outcome of review. Draft Basic Law not to be published

until 1988.

3.

Hong Kong opinion on direct elections is deeply divided.

At present probably a majority against introducing an element

of direct election at next elections (1988).

But a very vocal minority in favour. For 1997 and legislature of Hong Kong SAR, widespread feeling that a proporiton of seats (25-50%) should be directly elected.

4.

Very damaging to Hong Kong if we cannot achieve

compatability between our approach to direct elections in 1987 and Chinese approach to direct elections in Basic Law.

But Chinese fear direct elections could be divisive and

destabilising. And they do not want appearance of pressure or pre-emptive action that would be given if we decided in favour of direct elections in 1987, before appearance of draft Basic Law. Have urged us not to announce decision on this at outcome of review or before Basic Law is published.

5. Cannot predict with certainty how Hong Kong opinion on direct elections will evolve, or how we shall have to handle

problem in Hong Kong or with Chinese. But believe we must be very cautious about pace of introudction of any directly- elected element. Not itself a guarantee of autonomy. But

SECRET

/could