TNAG-1443-FCO40-1927-Constitutional-development-in-Hong-Kong-1986 — Page 201

CONFIDENTIAL

practice, given the increasing polarisation of opinion in Hong Kong

and the sensitivity and innate conservatism of the Chinese, it is

likely to prove very difficult. We have made some progress, and our

success in establishing the informal dialogue provides the means to

make more. But time is short and the gap between uk still large. The problem of direct elections, and how to deal with them in the

1987 review, will be

at the same time the most difficult and the

most important issue in

over the next 12

months.

Sino-British relations

34.

At the same time the practical significance of the

introduction of a directly elected elcment should be kept in

proportion. In the immediate future only a small number of the

seats on the Legislative Council would be involved. Although they

may be seen in Hong Kong as a symbol of autonomy, in practice this

autonomy cannot be guaranteed by such a device and must be achieved

in a variety of different ways. On the other hand there is a real

possibility that the introduction of direct elections might in practice generate instability.

These

considerations will

need to be kept very firmly in mind when the time comes to consider

whether a directly elected element should be introduced in 1988.

35.

In the meantime we must continue and intensify our exchanges

with the Chinese on all the issues connected with "convergence". We

must emphasise why the 1987 review must be seen to be genuine and

open, with both the British and Chinese Governments keeping an open

mind over the outcome. We must seek to create conditions of trust

within which problems can be discussed and solved.

36.

Until the state of opinion in Hong Kong crystallises, we

cannot foresee precisely how these problems might be tackled. But

the closer our informal dialogue with the Chinese on all the issues

connected with "convergence" and the Basic Law, the better will be

our chances of finding a way forward which will at least reduce the dimensions of the problems involved

involved and present an outcome which

CONFIDENTIAL

-11-