CONFIDENTIAL
elections
to
On the
the Legislative Council in 1988. The proponents of
these ideas are at present a minority, but they are a very vocal one
whose views are given widespread coverage in the media.
other hand the introduction of direct elections would increase
nervousness among the business community and in many other parts
of society.
31.
We cannot predict with any certainty how the views of the
people of Hong Kong on the issues to be covered in the 1987 review
will develop. Direct elections for a number of seats in the
Legislative Council will be the most controversial issue, and given
the deep divisions that already exist it is likely that no clear
consensus on this subject will emerge. It will undoubtedly be much more difficult than in the past to reach a decision that will be
acceptable to the majority, including the less vocal elements in
Hong Kong society.
32.
The situation is complicated by the fact that the known
Chinese opposition to direct elections has caused many people in
Hong Kong to support their introduction in 1988 not for their Own
sake, but as a symbol of Hong Kong's ability to acquire and retain
the "high degree of autonomy"
of autonomy" promised in the Joint Declaration.
This factor is so significant that in the view of the Governor of
Hong Kong if some element of direct elections is not introduced in
1988 there is likely to be among many people in Hong Kong a
substantial reduction in confidence in the willingness of HMG to
resist Chinese pressure, in the willingness of the Chinese
conceded true autonomy to the Hong Kong SAR and
the Hong Kong SAR and in the credibility
and authority of the Hong Kong Government. For others in Hong Kong,
however, Chinese opposition to direct elections will cause them to
turn against their introduction even if they might otherwise have been moderately in favour. The result is increasing polarisation.
to
33.
The two exercises under way in 1987, namely the 1987 review
and the drafting of the Basic Law,
essentially involve parallel
consultation of the same people on the same issues. It should, at
least in theory, be possible for the two sides to arrive at the same
conclusion. This is one of the main objects of the informal
established with the Chinese.
dialogue that we have
But in
CONFIDENTIAL
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