TNAG-1425-FCO40-1908-Vietnamese-refugees-in-Hong-Kong-general-1985 — Page 226

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(e) China: The Vietnamese viewed China as their traditional enemy.

Any border incursions in the North were therefore merely reverting to form. The Vietnamese, however, hoped for a change of heart in the Peking leadership, perhaps after Deng. The Chinese must eventually realise they would be unable to defeat the Vietnamese without a substantial military escalation and that sooner or later they would have to withdraw their support from the Khmer Rouge. But the Vietnamese still had a great fear of a possible deal between China and the Soviet Union behind their backs. The Chinese attacks had become extremely expensive. They could no longer merely attack a few provincial towns. Any future attacks would have to centre on Hanoi and the Vietnamese now had far better fortifications than they possessed in 1979. Furthermore, a massive attack would be counter-productive insomuch as it would unite the country against China and China would certainly not wish to appear to the outside world as the aggressor. The Vietnamese army now numbered 1.2 m people, the third largest in the world, and was well organised with high morale and extremely powerful.

(f) Influence of other Western countries: Mr Pike said that the

French were particularly active but frustrated at their lack of progress. They supported the general Western line on Cambodia and furthermore as the Vietnamese still owed them a great deal of money the French were finding it difficult to extend more credits. Mr Luce acknowledged that there was very little we could do but the Ambassador's budget, however small, was valuable in bringing Western ideas, for which there was a ready market, to the Vietnamese. Mr Pike agreed but said that we should not expect early tangible signs of an expansion of influence.

(g) The Vietnamese leadership: All the major figures in the

Vietnamese leadership were now in their late 70s and Mr Pike felt that in using the Ambassador's budget we should target the up and coming politicians currently in their 30s and 40s. He expected some changes to be made following the party congress next year.

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Finally, referring to an article by Paul Johnson in The Sunday Times of 21 April, Mr Pike said that he disagreed with the article's conclusion that the Vietnamese sought further expansion. He has seen no evidence to suggest that the Vietnamese intended to go any further than Cambodia.

Abidendusen

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A D F HENDERSON APS/Mr Luce

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