TNAG-1425-FCO40-1908-Vietnamese-refugees-in-Hong-Kong-general-1985 — Page 115

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in resettlement offers than other places of first asylum appears to

be simply that other countries consider that the UK, as the

metropolitan power, should take the lead in accepting a further

quota from Hong Kong. Evidence of this is set out in the attached

extract from the Memorandum which we submitted in October 1984 to

SCORRI (Annex B), and explicitly in the US and Australia submissions

to SCORRI. Similar remarks have been made by US, Australian and

UNHCR officials on several occasions in Geneva.

V PROGNOS IS

12.

no

In 1984 Hong Kong's refugee arrivals and departures decreased by 39% and 12% respectively from the 1983 levels. If these rates

we re to continue over the next few years, Hong Kong's refugee population would fall to around 6000 by the end of 1988, and dwindle

to virtually nothing by 1993 (Table II 1 Annex C). But this is

probably not a realistic basis for calculation. The 39% reduction

in the arrival rate in 1984 was less than the 53% reduction in 1983.

Hong Kong believe that they are now receiving a hard core of

determined Vietname se emigrants who have no faith in the Orderly

Departure Programme and who regard the closed centres as

discouragement. Moreover the Embassy in Hanoi expect food shortages in Vietnam this year, and also that illegal emigration will increase

as a result of repressive punishment meted out by the Vietnamese Supreme Court. Hong Kong therefore think it more likely that the

rate of decrease in arrivals will be at best in keeping with the regional decrease (which is itself slowing down; it was 11% in 1984). On this basis, Hong Kong's refugee population could be expected to decline to around 8,700 by the end of 1988, provided

that resettlement levels did not decrease any

any faster

faster than in 1984

(Table II 2). However if resettlement levels we re to fall off more

sharply than this, and there is evidence that they will, there would

be

a slight increase in the refugee population, to just over 13,000

by 1988 (Table II 4).

13. Hong Kong has shown that it can provide for refugees on

refugees on a long

term basis, in co-operation with UNHCR and the voluntary agencies. But the prospect of 8,000 to 13,000 still in Hong Kong in 1988, and

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