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/
in resettlement offers than other places of first asylum appears to
be simply that other countries consider that the UK, as the
metropolitan power, should take the lead in accepting a further
quota from
from Hong Kong. Evidence of this is set out in the attached
extract from the Memorandum which we
October 1984 to
SCORRI, and explicitly in the US and Australia submissions to
SCORRI. Similar remarks have been made by US, Australian and UNHCR
officials on several occasions in Geneva.
submitted
in
V PROGNOSIS
A
12.
In 1984 Hong Kong's refugee arrivals and departures decreased
by 39% and 12% respectively from the 1983 levels. If these rates
were to continue over the next few years, Hong Kong's refugee population would fall
fall to
to around 6000 by the end of 1988, and dwindle
to virtually nothing by 1993 (Table II 1). But this is probably not
year,
and
of
result
a realistic basis for calculation. The 39% reduction in the arrival
rate in 1984 was less than the 53% reduction in 1983. Hong Kong
believe that they are now receiving a hard core of determined
Vietnamese emigrants who have no faith in the Orderly Departure
Programme and who regard the closed centres as no discouragement. Moreover the Embassy in Hanoi expect food shortages in Vietnam this also that illegal emigration will increase as a
of
repressive punishment meted out by the Vietname se Supreme Court.
Hong Kong therefore think it more likely that the rate
decrease
in arrivals will be at best in keeping with the regional decrease
(which is itself slowing down; it was 11% in 1984). On this basis,
Hong Kong's refugee population could be expected around 8,700 by the end of 1988, provided that
did not decrease any faster than in 1984
1984 (Table
(Table II 2). However if
than this, sharply
there is evidence that they
that they will, there would be a slight increase
in the refugee population, to just over 13,000 by 1988 (Table II
4).
resettlement
levels
to were
fall off
more
decline
to
to
resettlement levels
and
13. Hong Kong has shown that it can provide for refugees on a long term basis, in co-operation with UNHCR and the voluntary agencies. But the prospect of 8,000 to 13,000 still in Hong Kong in 1988, and
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