CONFIDENTIAL
8.
the camp
1985 1985 and
If all the above possibilities materialised
population would halve in the two years between January
December 1986. But it must be stressed that this i s the best
possible scenario and the odds must be that something less, and
possibly considerably less, than this will be achieved. Looking further ahead, it would be unrealistic to expect the camp population
to decrease quickly thereafter: although the main resettlement
countries will, with luck, continue to
to accept refugees at a fairly
steady rate, significant resettlement offers by
by countries such as
Norway and Finland are unlikely to be repeated. We should therefore
as sume that Hong Kong will have to
population for s ome years to come.
that a
conspicuously higher rate of
cope with a sizeable refugee
There i s also the possibility
resettlemen t than hitherto may
itself precipitate a higher outflow from Vietnam. There is little
that we can do to minimise this
this danger, but it is a risk of which
the main resettlement countries are all too aware, and which in many
cases leads them to limit the size of their resettlement commitments
accordingly and to press for further efforts to be made to enable
voluntary repatriation to take place. Pressure to talk to the
Vietnamese about this in the years ahead is very likely to grow.
9.
In the shorter
term, we shall continue to monitor the
situation carefully and to ensure, in consultation with the Hong Kong Government and UNHCR, that the momentum of the campaign is kept
up. We shall need to consider in due course whether to make a
further approach to the Home Office to ask
them to take additional
numbers beyond the 500 family reunion cases; and to discuss with
Hong Kong how many ethnic Chinese they might consider accepting.
But we shall not be in a position to pursue these questions until
the overall resettlement picture (and in particular the American and Canadian responses) becomes clearer.
There ha
A useful round-up +!
been some response
to
our own
(pretty small) i sitiative. But not much. We must certainly continue
7, November 1985
pers
Then re-asses ow next stepe.
سانا
L.G. Ehaman
W G Ehrman
Hong Kong Department
CONFIDENTIAL
81x1
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