TNAG-1401-FCO40-1873-Future-of-Hong-Kong-continued-participation-in-the-General-A-1985 — Page 177

KW

Annex

Trends in Trade

1

China has great natural energy and mineral resources and

steadily improving agricultural productivity, although the

development of infrastructure and industry is still backward and

GDP per head very low. But China has demonstrated both the will

and capacity to expand rapidly, most notably in textiles. China

has announed the target of quadrupling output in both industry

and agriculture over the last 20 years of this century. The IMF

forecast that China's exports will grow at an annual rate of 10.5%

between 1982 and 1985 and at 9.1% pa between 1985 and 1990. China,

having grown from a small base only a few years ago, is now the

third largest supplier of textiles to the UK and our sixth largest

clothing supplier. China is therefore arguably already a

"dominant supplier", alongside Hong Kong, S Korea, Macao and Taiwan.

China's declared export priorities also include non-ferrous metals',

rare metals, non-metallic minerals, chemical industry and

pharmaceutical products, and agricultural products and by-products.

While continuing to promote exports, China confines imports of

essential items of plant and machinery not produced in China. The

World Bank estimate that between 1985 and 1990 Chinese imports of

equipment will grow at an average of 5% per year (down from over 25%

in the first half of the decade).