TNAG-1401-FCO40-1873-Future-of-Hong-Kong-continued-participation-in-the-General-A-1985 — Page 125

CONFIDENTIAL

Other Countries' Attitudes

22. Most other countries are, like the Community,

unlikely to see trade policy considerations as decisive

in determining their attitude to a Chinese application.

The interests of other developed countries, including

the United States, are on the whole close to our own

(although many are likely to be concerned about the

precedent that Chinese accession may set for the Soviet

Union). As regards regional countries, NICs (eg.

Korea and Singapore) are likely to see more potential

commercial benefit to themselves than the less

industrialised (Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia).

For the more developed, increased scope for Chinese

exports will mean a larger Chinese market for their own

exports; for the less developed, however, it is likely

simply to mean greater competition for their own goods

on third country markets with little in the way of

compensating gains. As already suggested, many LDCS

will expect Chinese support for traditional LDC

positions in the GATT.

CONCLUSIONS

23.

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We cannot yet be sure whether a Chinese

application to join the GATT would be successful,

but it probably would: many Western and developing

countries would, on general political grounds,

CONFIDENTIAL