CONFIDENTIAL
Other Countries' Attitudes
22. Most other countries are, like the Community,
unlikely to see trade policy considerations as decisive
in determining their attitude to a Chinese application.
The interests of other developed countries, including
the United States, are on the whole close to our own
(although many are likely to be concerned about the
precedent that Chinese accession may set for the Soviet
Union). As regards regional countries, NICs (eg.
Korea and Singapore) are likely to see more potential
commercial benefit to themselves than the less
industrialised (Thailand, Philippines and Indonesia).
For the more developed, increased scope for Chinese
exports will mean a larger Chinese market for their own
exports; for the less developed, however, it is likely
simply to mean greater competition for their own goods
on third country markets with little in the way of
compensating gains. As already suggested, many LDCS
will expect Chinese support for traditional LDC
positions in the GATT.
CONCLUSIONS
23.
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We cannot yet be sure whether a Chinese
application to join the GATT would be successful,
but it probably would: many Western and developing
countries would, on general political grounds,
CONFIDENTIAL