CONFIDENTIAL
assurances on the treatment of those concerned.
(c) Training
We explore methods of improving training facilities in the
camps in Hong Kong.
SE AD and UND agree.
BACKGROUND
3.
8 / UKM 1.
The attached paper, agreed with SEAD, UND,
UND, Hong Kong and UKMis
Geneva, sets out factually the situation, predicts how it is likely
to develop if matters are left as they are, and examines all the
options of which we have been able to think, setting out their
advantages and disadvantages.
4.
deteriorate.
The general prognosis (paras 12-13) is that unless there is
successful action to contain the problem, the situation is likely
On reasonable assumptions it could deteriorate quite
rapidly between now and 1988. We could eventually face rioting in
the camps: such a situation, besides creating difficult security
problems and much human misery, would certainly result in widespread
criticism or condemnation of HMG.
inaction at this stage seems neither
j
For these reason s a policy of
viable nor sensible.
A full
5.
On the other hand there are no easy options, nor can we say
with any certainty that any of the courses of action which have been
identified will be successful in containing the problem.
solution to the problem would require, first and foremost, success
in increasing the rate of departures both to the UK and to other
countries. We must also try to decrease the rate of arrivals. The
latter is more difficult, but if it cannot be achieved there i s some
danger that a better resettlement rate will actually stimulate more
refugee arrivals.
CONFIDENTIAL
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