TNAG-1392-FCO40-1864-Future-of-Hong-Kong-briefing-for-meetings-and-visits-1985 — Page 159

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be

in

tc

in resettlement offers than other places of first asylum appears

simply that other countries consider that the UK, as the metropolitan power, should take the lead

accepting а further quot a from Hong Kong. Evidence of this i s set out in the attached extract from the Memorandum which we submitted

October 1984 to SCORRI (Annex B), and explicitly in the US and Australia submissions to SCORRI. Similar remarks have been made by US, Australian and UNHCR officials on several occasions in Geneva.

in

V PROGNOSIS

12.

in

for

calculation.

core of

In 1984 Hong Kong's refugee arrivals and departures decreased by 39% and 12% respectively from the 1983 levels. I f these rates were to continue over the next few years, Hong Kong's refugee population would fall to around 6000 by the end of 1988, and dwindle to virtually nothing by 1993 (Table ΙΙ 1 Annex C). But this i s probably not a realistic basis

The 39% reduction in the arrival rate

1984 was less than the 53% reduction in 1983. Hong Kong believe that they are now receiving a hard

Vietname se emigrants who have no faith Departure Programme and who regard the closed centres discouragement. Moreover the Embassy in Hanoi expect food shortages in Vietnam this year,

and also that illegal emigration will increase as a result of repressive punishment meted out by the Vietnamese Supreme Court. Hong Kong therefore think it more likely that the rate of decrease in arrivals will be at best in keeping with the decrease (which is itself slowing down; it was 11% in

determined

regional

1984).

On

this basis, Hong

expected to decline to around

in the Orderly

as

no

Kong's refugee population could be

8,700 by the end of 1988, provided that resettlement levels did not decrease any faster than in 1984 (Table II 2). However i f resettlement levels were to fall off more

sharply than this, and there is evidence that they will, there would be a slight increase in the refugee population, to just over 13,000 by 1988 (Table II 4).

13. Hong Kong has shown that it can provide for refugees on a long term basis, in co-operation with UNHCR and the voluntary agencies. But the prospect of 8,000 to 13,000 still in Hong Kong in 1988, and

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