CONFIDENTIAL
15. On the diplomatic front there was no clear message that ASEAN is developing as a united body. Indeed, competitive domestic economies sometimes give the opposite impression. There was concern about the position of the Cambodian resistance during the forthcoming dry season, and the thought was developed that Vietnam could find itself with a permanent Soviet presence; the UK should avoid any suggestion of being asked to mediate in the Kampuchea
dispute.
16. The principal concern, though, was about the Philippines and
the difficulty of assessing the likely course of events there.
Prime questions centre around the choice of Marcos' successor, the
evolution of opposition parties and the future of the American
bases. Opinions differed among the Indonesian Ministers and
officials I called on as to how worried they should be about Marcos.
Where they agreed was in their uncertainty as to what they could or
should do next to influence the situation in Manila. Our Mission
there will have an important task in monitoring developments.
17.
The Indonesian economy continues to grow although not at the
pace of previous years. There will obviously be pressure on the
five year plan if the oil price falls further but President Soeharto and his Ministers gave every impression of being well in charge.
18. I am very grateful to Sir Edward Youde and Alan Donald for the way they looked after us and for the busy and interesting programmes
they and their Missions organised.
The Renton
نسا
Tim Renton
CONFIDENTIAL
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