TNAG-1373-FCO40-1819-Ministerial-visits-from-the-UK-to-Hong-Kong-1985 — Page 284

HONG KONG'S EXISTING VOLUNTEER ORGANISATIONS RECONSTITUTED AS

NECESSARY.

7. IN COMING TO THIS CONCLUSION, THE STEERING GROUP HAS TAKEN INTO

ACCOUNT THE FOLLOWING FACTORS:

斧

(A) CHANGE IN THE NATURE OF THE THREAT'' AFTER 1997. INTERVENTION

BY CHINA CAN BE IGNORED BECAUSE FIRST, CHINA NO LONGER HAS AN

INCENTIVE TO STIR UP TROUBLE IN HONG KONG AND SECOND, THE

REPLACEMENT FOR THE GARRISON COULD NOT OPPOSE INTERVENTION BY CHINA

ANYWAY. THE MAIN THREAT THAT THE POLICE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CONTAIN

WOULD BE A SERIES OF WIDESPREAD DISTURBANCES TRIGGERED OFF BY

SPECIFIC ISSUES AGAINST A BACKGROUND OF PROLONGED ECONOMIC

DEPRESSION:

(B) CHINA WILL NOT AGREE TO ANY PERMANENT MILITARY OR

PARA-MILITARY BODIES REPLACING THE GARRISON. BUT THE PRCG WOULD

PROBABLY NOT OBJECT TO EXPANDING THE POLICE FORCE FOR THIS PURPOSE:

(C) THE HONG KONG COMMUNITY WOULD WISH TO SEE THAT THE GARRISON IS

BEING REPLACED AND IN SUCH A WAY AS TO DISCOURAGE A SUBSTANTIAL

PLA PRESENCE IN HONG KONG.

8. IF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE STEERING GROUP ARE AGREED, THE

STEERING GROUP RECOMMENDS IT SHOULD SET UP A WORKING GROUP TO DRAW

UP DETAILED PROPOSALS ON WHAT THE REPLACEMENT SHOULD DE AND THE

SPEED AT WHICH IT CAN BE BUILT UP.

9. THE FOLLOWING STAGE, PRELIMINARY WORK ON WHICH HAS BEEN GOING

ON AT THE SAME TIME, WOULD BE TO DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH THE

PRESENT GARRISON CAN BE RUN DOWN AND HOW IT SHOULD BE ACHIEVED. A

NUMBER OF FACTORS WILL BE RELEVANT INCLUDING A DETAILED ASSESSMENT

OF THE THREAT UP TO 1997, THE MOPALE OF THE POLICE FORCE, HMG'S

PLANS FOR THE GURKHAS, THE NEED TO AVOID EXCESSIVE COST AND THE

NEED TO AVOID TOO LARGE A VACUUM WHICH THE PLA COULD. FILL

PARTICULARLY IN THE URBAN AREAS. BECAUSE THESE FACTORS WILL VARY OVER

TIME, THEY WILL NEED TO BE REASSESSED AT EACH STAGE OF THE RUNDOWN

SO THAT A DECISION CAN BE TAKEN ON WHETHER OR NOT TO PROCEED WITH

IT.

YOUDE

LIMITED

HRD.

DEFENCE D PS/MR RENTON

R

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