HONG KONG'S EXISTING VOLUNTEER ORGANISATIONS RECONSTITUTED AS
NECESSARY.
7. IN COMING TO THIS CONCLUSION, THE STEERING GROUP HAS TAKEN INTO
ACCOUNT THE FOLLOWING FACTORS:
斧
(A) CHANGE IN THE NATURE OF THE THREAT'' AFTER 1997. INTERVENTION
BY CHINA CAN BE IGNORED BECAUSE FIRST, CHINA NO LONGER HAS AN
INCENTIVE TO STIR UP TROUBLE IN HONG KONG AND SECOND, THE
REPLACEMENT FOR THE GARRISON COULD NOT OPPOSE INTERVENTION BY CHINA
ANYWAY. THE MAIN THREAT THAT THE POLICE MAY NOT BE ABLE TO CONTAIN
WOULD BE A SERIES OF WIDESPREAD DISTURBANCES TRIGGERED OFF BY
SPECIFIC ISSUES AGAINST A BACKGROUND OF PROLONGED ECONOMIC
DEPRESSION:
(B) CHINA WILL NOT AGREE TO ANY PERMANENT MILITARY OR
PARA-MILITARY BODIES REPLACING THE GARRISON. BUT THE PRCG WOULD
PROBABLY NOT OBJECT TO EXPANDING THE POLICE FORCE FOR THIS PURPOSE:
(C) THE HONG KONG COMMUNITY WOULD WISH TO SEE THAT THE GARRISON IS
BEING REPLACED AND IN SUCH A WAY AS TO DISCOURAGE A SUBSTANTIAL
PLA PRESENCE IN HONG KONG.
8. IF THE RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE STEERING GROUP ARE AGREED, THE
STEERING GROUP RECOMMENDS IT SHOULD SET UP A WORKING GROUP TO DRAW
UP DETAILED PROPOSALS ON WHAT THE REPLACEMENT SHOULD DE AND THE
SPEED AT WHICH IT CAN BE BUILT UP.
9. THE FOLLOWING STAGE, PRELIMINARY WORK ON WHICH HAS BEEN GOING
ON AT THE SAME TIME, WOULD BE TO DETERMINE THE SPEED AT WHICH THE
PRESENT GARRISON CAN BE RUN DOWN AND HOW IT SHOULD BE ACHIEVED. A
NUMBER OF FACTORS WILL BE RELEVANT INCLUDING A DETAILED ASSESSMENT
OF THE THREAT UP TO 1997, THE MOPALE OF THE POLICE FORCE, HMG'S
PLANS FOR THE GURKHAS, THE NEED TO AVOID EXCESSIVE COST AND THE
NEED TO AVOID TOO LARGE A VACUUM WHICH THE PLA COULD. FILL
PARTICULARLY IN THE URBAN AREAS. BECAUSE THESE FACTORS WILL VARY OVER
TIME, THEY WILL NEED TO BE REASSESSED AT EACH STAGE OF THE RUNDOWN
SO THAT A DECISION CAN BE TAKEN ON WHETHER OR NOT TO PROCEED WITH
IT.
YOUDE
LIMITED
HRD.
DEFENCE D PS/MR RENTON
R
2
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