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3.
tendency to overkill.
Another is uncertainty when
faced with a complex situation and no political directives. When Hong Kong mounts a major propaganda campaign, either openly or by background and personal briefings, it usually does so very effectively.
(ii) The Hong Kong Government pays a great deal of
attention to the analysis of public opinion. It is
effective in doing so at grass roots level. Where it
more often fails (particularly in present changing
circumstances) is in analysing the impact of pressure
groups. Since those pressure groups are often unrepresentative of general public opinion, the Government has a tendency to under-estimate the damage
they can do.
The main changes Hong Kong now faces are (a) the impact of more assertive pressure groups; (b) political leaders with a constituency to satisfy and power to aim for; and (c) a press which has been encouraged by the history of the negotiations on Hong Kong's future to probe for minutiae; to be critical of the Government; and which is, on the whole, poor at objective analysis and advice.
4.
The Governor is well aware of the new situation and the
problems he faces. The key to handling them is essentially greater sensitivity within the Hong Kong Administration to the new political environment. I agree with Mr Galsworthy that the new Chief Secretary will be a helpful influence. He has
a very good feeling for public opinion. (I am less sure about the new Deputy Chief Secretary, Mr Alan Scott, in this context. He is a very competent and energetic administrator, but rather a bull in a china shop when dealing with the press
and public.) But the Hong Kong Government's ability to manage a rapidly changing political scene will depend increasingly on the calibre of local Hong Kong civil servants who will have to be promoted rapidly over the next few years. The Secretary of
State could ask the Governor whether there is anything we can
do to help with the rapid training of such officials (might a
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