TNAG-1331-FCO40-1758-Future-of-Hong-Kong-test-of-the-acceptability-of-the-Joint-D-1984 — Page 357

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FM MONG KONG 1509152 NOV 84

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

Salceady have one

TELEGRAM NUMBER 3487 OF 15 NOVEMBER

IMMEDIATE

ADVANCE COPY

ADVA

SIR. P. Gadock

FOLLOWING PERSONAL FOR CRADOCK FROM GOVERNOR

HKK 040/46

RECEIVED REGISTRY

2 2 NOV 1984

DESK OFFICER

YOUR TELNO 2246 : ASSESSMENT OUTCOME

INDEX

PA

1. I WILL BE ABLE TO GIVE YOU A BETTER FORECAST AT THE BEGINNING

OF NEXT WEEK. THERE HAS BEEN QUITE A FLURRY OF LAST MINUTE SUBMISS-

IONS TO THE ASSESSMENT OFFICE.

2. 1 AGREE THAT THE OUTCOME IS LIKELY TO BE A FAVOURABLE OVERALL

RECEOPTION. THIS WILL CERTAINLY BE THE CASE FOR THE MAJORITY OF

THE REPRESENTATIVE ORGANISATIONS ( MINUS THE BAR COUNCIL). WHAT

THE CRUDE FIGURES ON INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES WILL SHOW IS LESS

CERTAIN BECAUSE THEY WILL BE DISTORTED BY THE LETTERS

USING STANDARD WORDING. BUT THE COMMISSIONER'S REPORT WILL NO

DOUBT IDENTIFY THE TRUE PICTURE. THE RESULTS OF THE OPINION

POLL MAY BE HELPFUL HERE SINCE THEY WILL NOT BE SIMILARLY

DISTORTED.

3. THE MAIN CONCERNS EXPRESSED IN THE PUBLIC RESPONSE TO

THE AGREEMENT, AND WITH WHICH MINISTERS MAY HAVE TO DEAL IN

THEIR COMMENTS, ARE:

(A) THAT THE ASSESSMENT EXERCISE WAS NOT A TRUE TEST BECAUSE THE

PEOPLE OF HONG KONG WERE GIVEN NO REAL CHOICE: IT WAS TAKE IT

OR LEAVE IT.

(B) THAT THE NATIONALITY PROVISIONS ARE NOT SATISFACTORY TO

THOSE WHO VALUE THEIR STATUS AS DDTC'S.

(C) THAT THE BASIC LAW WILL BE CRUCIAL TO THE FUTURE OF HONG

KONG AND IT IS NOT CLEAR WHAT ROLE EITHER THE UK OR THE PEOPLE

OF HONG KONG ARE GOING TO BE ABLE TO PLAY IN FORMULATING IT.

(D) THAT WHATEVER THE INTENTIONS OF THE PRESENT CHINESE

LEADERSHIP THERE CAN BE NO CERTAINTY THAT THEIR SUCCESSORS WILL

HONOUR THE PROVISIONS OF THE AGREEMENT.

4. MOST OF THIS WILL HAVE COME THROUGH IN THE INTERIM REPORTS

AND PAPART FROM THE FIGURES FOR INDIVIDUAL RESPONSES I DOUBT

IF THERE WILL BE ANY SURPRISES IN THE FINAL REPORT, I WILL

SEND YOU A FURTHER FORECAST AFTER THE WEEKEND.

YOUDE

NNNN