TNAG-1308-FCO40-1665-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1984 — Page 28

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In the light of our meeting last Friday, I should like to propose the following new projects:

1. Proposed policy study of relations between the two Germanies

Developments within Federal Germany and in intra-German relations over the past four years have reopened the debate on 'the German problem': the rise of the Greens and of the peace movement within West Germany, with a fainter echo within the DDR; the greater emphasis on 'the fatherland' by the Kohl Government as a focus for German identity; active efforts to insulate intra- German relations from the deterioration of East-West relations since the invasion of Afghanistan; the extension of additional credits to the East German economy, with accompanying implications of political leverage to be gained by economic concessions. This study will examine recent political, social and economic developments in relations between the two German states; will assess the interests and objectives of West German policy, and the East German response; will consider the evolution of public and political opinion within the two German states with regard to their future relations; and place these within the context of the competing interests and ties which bind the FRG and the DDR to their respective partners and allies. The conclusion will consider the benefits and costs which other West European states incur from the intra-German relationship and would incur from any intensification of that relationship, should current developments lead to a shift in the established pattern.

Budget

Standard charge

Research fee

Travel

€ 4,000 € 6,000

€ 1,500

£11,500

2.

Total

Proposed policy study of Turkey

The purpose of this study will be to examine Turkey's current situation and to consider whether it should or can be further drawn in to Western organ- izations. Despite recent improvements, Turkey is still some way from being a stable democracy with a soundly based economy. Its geographical location - with the Soviet Union to the north, Iran and Iraq to the east, Syria to the south, and Greece to the west - makes it strategically important to but also distances it somewhat from the West. Differences between Turkey and the members of NATO, to which it belongs, and the EEC, which it would like to join, stem from a variety of issues: human rights, trade, migrant workers, Armenian terrorists, the Aegean, divergent attitudes on the Middle East. NATO is concerned at the poor quality of Turkey's contribution which has resulted from its economic plight, and the US and Germany are providing sub- stantial military aid. The EEC is reluctant to hold out the prospect of membership should Turkey return to full democracy, because of the economic costs this would impose. The study will analyse the difficulties and the opportunities and will suggest how relations with Turkey can best be dealt

with.

Budget

Standard charge

Research fee

Travel

Total

£4,000

€1,500

£1,500

£7,000

/cont...