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5. Peking telno 166 is generally in favour of a visit but acknowledges that a decision will depend upon the state of the Hong Kong negotiations. It, however, reveals that President Reagan is now most likely to be in China between 25 and 30 April although no firm decision on this is likely until about mid-February.
6.
I understand from the Private Office that the Secretary of State's present schedule would not permit delaying the whole tour so as to bring him to Peking on or after 3 May. The Japanese holiday season beginning on 29 April would rule out a later visit to Tokyo.
1.
If the Hong Kong negotiations have by April reached the point where a visit to Peking is clearly desirable (and this is far from certain yet), the only ways of fitting it in to the Far Eastern tour appear to be to arrange either for an earlier departure, perhaps on Friday 20 April, or to make room in the Secretary of State's diary at the beginning of May, so that he could visit Peking after President Regan had departed on 30 April. The first option has the disadvantage that Sir R Evans' initial view is that a visit on the weekend before Mr Reagan's arrival would clearly not be feasible or desirable. It would also involve a direct flight from Peking to Seoul which the Chinese would not welcome. It might in extremis be necessary to try to set up a visit on that basis, but in order to allow proper time for talks on Hong Kong, the later date would be preferable.
8. In Peking telno 166 the Ambassador has pointed out that the Chinese Foreign Minister Wu Xueqian may be visiting Paris in April (the dates could be 9-10 April if this is to coincide with the Foreign Affairs Council and Political Cooperation meeting). As the Secretary of State would be in Paris at this time it would be possible to arrange for a bilateral meeting with Wu there, or alternatively to invite Wu to come on to London. But it is very doubtful whether a meeting with Wu abroad would allow for adequate substantive discussion on Hong Kong. Although Wu has been involved with the subject, he would not have a mandate to react significantly to any proposals which the Secretary of State might make, let alone to negotiate. If we were to get full advantage from such a contact it would need to be in Peking, where decisions are taken, and to include a meeting with Deng.
9. A further complication concerns the proposed visit by Mr Stanley, Minister of State at the MOD, to China from about 24- 28 April and to Hong Kong thereafter. The Chinese have now agreed to this visit. It would clearly be undesirable for Mr Stanley and the Secretary of State to coincide in Peking, and even more so in Hong Kong where Mr Stanley is at present planning to arrive on 28 April. I believe that it is unnecessary to make firm plans for the avoidance of a clash in Peking until
/President
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