TNAG-1284-FCO40-1636-Constitutional-development-in-Hong-Kong-1984 — Page 41

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18. ON THE OTHER HAND, IT WOULD BE EXCEEDINGLY DIFFICULT FOR THE

CHINESE PUBLICLY TO OPPOSE THE PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF REPRESENT-

ATIVE GOVERNMENT BEFORE 1997, PARTICULARLY IF THIS FOUND STRONG SUPPORT IN THE HONG KONG COMMUNITY. IF THEY WERE TO DO SO IT WOULD INVALIDATE THEIR CLAIMS THAT THE HONG KONG PEOPLE WOULD BE LEFT TO RULE HONG KOOG: AND THAT THEY WOULD ACCEPT THE ELECTION OF A CHIEF EXECUTIVE IN HONG KONG. THEY WOULD THEREFORE MUCH PREFER HMG TO

CONSULT THEM IN CONFIDENCE SO THAT THEIR OPPOSITION NEED NOT BE

EXPRESSED IN PUBLIC: AND, THE ONUS OF NOT INTRODUCING REPRESENT- ATIVE GOVERNMENT WOULD FALL ON HMG RATHER THAN PUBLICLY ON THEM,

19. IT IS NOT TO BE EXCLUDED, HOWEVER, THAT THE CHINESE COULD BE BROUGHT TO ACQUIESCE IN THE PROGRESSIVE DEVELOPMENT OF REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT BETWEEN NOW AND 1997 RATHER THAN PUT THEMSELVES IN THE POSITION OF PUBLICLY REJECTING IT. THIS IS THE ARGUMENT FOR TESTING THEIR REACTION BY PRESENTING IN THE GREEN PAPER ON CONSTITUTIONAL

DEVELOPMENT THE IDEA THAT AN ELECT

D GOVERNOR WOULD BE THE NATURAL PROGRESSION TO FOLLOW ELECTION TO LEGISLATIVE AND EXECUTIVE COUNCILS. THERE IS AT LEAST A CHANCE THAT THEY WOULD NOT ATTACK THE PROPOSITION FOR FEAR OF UNDERMINING THE CREDIBILITY OF THEIR CLAIM THAT THEY ARE PREPARED TO LET HONG KONG PEOPLE RUN HONG KONG. IF, ON THE OTHER HAND, THEIR REACTION WAS SUCH AS TO MAKE THE FINAL STEP OF ELECTING A GOVERNOR IN THE 1990S UNWORKABLE, AT LEAST HMG WOULD BE SEEN TO HAVE TRIED AND THE ONUS FOR THE SITUATION THEN ARISING WOULD FALL ON THE CHINESE AND NOT ON HMG.

TIMING

20. IT IS NOT, HOWEVER, PROPOSED TO SET A DATE IN THE GREEN PAPER FOR THE ELECTION OF A GOVERNOR. THE EARLIEST IT COULD TAKE PLACE WOULD BE IN 1992, ON THE COMPLETION OF THE INDIRECT ELECTIVE PROCESS FOR LEGCO AND EXCO. TO ANNOUNCE THAT THE GOVERNOR WOULD BE ELECTED IN THAT YEAR COULD, LEAD TO A BELIEF THAT THAT WOULD BE THE EFFECTIVE DATE OF BRITISH WITHDRAWAL, WHICH WOULD BE DE-STABILISING. NOR WOULD HMG WISH THE PERIOD IN WHICH THEY WOULD RETAIN AUTHORITY WITHOUT REPRESENTATIVE POWER TO BE ANY LONGER THAN NECESS- ARY. ON THE OTHER HAND, AN ELECTION COULD NOT BE SET FOR A DATE TOO CLOSE TO 1997 SINCE THAT WOULD LACK CREDIBILITY. THE DATE NEED NOT BE SET NOW, BUT IT MAY BE THAT 1994 WOULD BE THE DATE WHICH WOULD RECONCILE THESE CONFLICTING REQUIREMENTS.

YOUDE

COPIES TO:-

LIMITED

SIR P CRADOCK

HD/HKD

MR BURROWS LEGAL ADVISER

HD/FED

SIR W HARDING

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