TNAG-1276-FCO40-1626-Resettlement-of-Vietnamese-refugees-from-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 9

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CANS.

3. THE 200,000 REFUGEES STILL IN THE AREA CERTAINLY PRESENT

SERIOUS PROBLEMS OF PROTECTION. BUT EVEN IF MR MOUSSALLI REGARD

THE CLOSED CAMP POLICY IN HONG KONG AS A FORM OF DETENTION AND

PINDS IT DISTASTEFUL, I HOPE HE WOULD AGREE THAT THE REAL DAN-

GERS FOR THE SAFETY AND WELFARE OF REFUGEES LIE ELSEWHERE. HONG

KONG WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW REFUGEES TO LAND DESPITE THEIR

INCREASING CASELOAD, AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AFTER THEM AT

CONSIDERABLE EXPENSE. BUT OMINOUS NOISES HAVE BEEN COMING OUT

OF KUALA LUMPUR ABOUT THE INCREASING EXCESS THIS YEAR OF ARRIVAL

OVER RESETTLEMENTS IN MALAYSIA: AND, AS MR MOUSSALLI RECOGNISES,

IT IS THE THAI/CAMBODIA BORDER WHICH IS THE MOST DIFFICULT AREA

POR UNHCR TO 'POLICE'.

1. WE MUST ASSUME THAT DESPITE A FURTHER FALL IN NUMBERS OF

BOAT-PEOPLE THIS YEAR THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A CONTINUING OUTFLOW

PROM VIETNAM FOR SOME TIME AND A CONTINUING DANGER OF SUDDEN SUR

ES.

BUT AS MICHAEL PIKE'S DESPATCH SUGGESTS, THE SORT OF STEPS

WHICH MIGHT ELIMINATE THIS FLOW ALTOGETHER REQUIRE A REGIONAL

POLITICAL SETTLEMENT AND NOT JUST THE SORT OF DECISIONS AVAILABL

TO UNHCR AND THE MAJOR RESETTLEMENT STATES EVEN IF THEY HOLD A

RESH CONFERENCE.

5. IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES, 'CONTROLLING THE FLOW OF REFUGEES'

WILL DEPEND ON PRESSING AHEAD WITH THE ODP AND DISCOURAGING

DISORDERLY DEPARTURES. UNHCR WILL HAVE TO COUNTENANCE SOME

DETERRENTS, SUCH AS CLOSED CAMPS IN HONG KONG AND CLOSED CENTRES

IN THAILAND. AT THE SAME TIME COUNTRIES OF FIRST ASYLUM WILL

HAVE TO ACCEPT A BACKLOG OF UNRESETTLED CASES IN ORDER TO GIVE

THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF SLOW RESETTLEMENT SOME REAL FORCE.

5. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO TELL WHETHER MR MOUSALLI

IS DOING ANY MORE THAN WRESTLING WITH THE OLD DILEMMA OF HUMANE

DETERRENCE': IF IT DETERS IT IS NOT HUMANE, IF IT IS HUMANE IT

S HARDLY LIKELY TO DETER THOSE WHO ARE PREPARED TO RISK SO MUCH

ANYWAY. BUT, IN PRACTICE, CLOSED CAMPS MAY PROVIDE SOME EFFEC-

TIVE DETERRENCE WHILE REMAINING REASONABLY HUMANE. THE INHUMANE

DETERRENTS LIKE THAI PIRACY OR THE TENDENCY OF SHIPS' MASTERS

TO LEAVE BOATS UNAIDED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE ALREADY

AND

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