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CANS.
3. THE 200,000 REFUGEES STILL IN THE AREA CERTAINLY PRESENT
SERIOUS PROBLEMS OF PROTECTION. BUT EVEN IF MR MOUSSALLI REGARD
THE CLOSED CAMP POLICY IN HONG KONG AS A FORM OF DETENTION AND
PINDS IT DISTASTEFUL, I HOPE HE WOULD AGREE THAT THE REAL DAN-
GERS FOR THE SAFETY AND WELFARE OF REFUGEES LIE ELSEWHERE. HONG
KONG WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW REFUGEES TO LAND DESPITE THEIR
INCREASING CASELOAD, AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOOK AFTER THEM AT
CONSIDERABLE EXPENSE. BUT OMINOUS NOISES HAVE BEEN COMING OUT
OF KUALA LUMPUR ABOUT THE INCREASING EXCESS THIS YEAR OF ARRIVAL
OVER RESETTLEMENTS IN MALAYSIA: AND, AS MR MOUSSALLI RECOGNISES,
IT IS THE THAI/CAMBODIA BORDER WHICH IS THE MOST DIFFICULT AREA
POR UNHCR TO 'POLICE'.
1. WE MUST ASSUME THAT DESPITE A FURTHER FALL IN NUMBERS OF
BOAT-PEOPLE THIS YEAR THERE IS LIKELY TO BE A CONTINUING OUTFLOW
PROM VIETNAM FOR SOME TIME AND A CONTINUING DANGER OF SUDDEN SUR
ES.
BUT AS MICHAEL PIKE'S DESPATCH SUGGESTS, THE SORT OF STEPS
WHICH MIGHT ELIMINATE THIS FLOW ALTOGETHER REQUIRE A REGIONAL
POLITICAL SETTLEMENT AND NOT JUST THE SORT OF DECISIONS AVAILABL
TO UNHCR AND THE MAJOR RESETTLEMENT STATES EVEN IF THEY HOLD A
RESH CONFERENCE.
5. IN THE CIRCUMSTANCES, 'CONTROLLING THE FLOW OF REFUGEES'
WILL DEPEND ON PRESSING AHEAD WITH THE ODP AND DISCOURAGING
DISORDERLY DEPARTURES. UNHCR WILL HAVE TO COUNTENANCE SOME
DETERRENTS, SUCH AS CLOSED CAMPS IN HONG KONG AND CLOSED CENTRES
IN THAILAND. AT THE SAME TIME COUNTRIES OF FIRST ASYLUM WILL
HAVE TO ACCEPT A BACKLOG OF UNRESETTLED CASES IN ORDER TO GIVE
THE DETERRENT EFFECT OF SLOW RESETTLEMENT SOME REAL FORCE.
5. IT IS DIFFICULT AT THE MOMENT TO TELL WHETHER MR MOUSALLI
IS DOING ANY MORE THAN WRESTLING WITH THE OLD DILEMMA OF HUMANE
DETERRENCE': IF IT DETERS IT IS NOT HUMANE, IF IT IS HUMANE IT
S HARDLY LIKELY TO DETER THOSE WHO ARE PREPARED TO RISK SO MUCH
ANYWAY. BUT, IN PRACTICE, CLOSED CAMPS MAY PROVIDE SOME EFFEC-
TIVE DETERRENCE WHILE REMAINING REASONABLY HUMANE. THE INHUMANE
DETERRENTS LIKE THAI PIRACY OR THE TENDENCY OF SHIPS' MASTERS
TO LEAVE BOATS UNAIDED IN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA ARE ALREADY
AND
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