TNAG-1273-FCO40-1623-Vietnamese-refugees-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 182

CONFIDENTIAL

-7-

boating season in September/October.

This will not

be the case if arrivals increase significantly.

10.

There is as yet no evidence that the closed camp

policy is deterring illegal departures from Vietnam.

Variations in numbers arriving in the region each month

since July are consistent with variations in 1980 and 1981.

Only a small percentage of those who have arrived since

then admit to having known about the policy before

their departure, but we believe that this picture is

probably distorted because the refugees suspect that if

they admit prior knowledge they would in some way

be penalised. It will be some months before we can

draw any firm conclusions about the effectiveness of

the new policy.

11.

Very low offtake from the closed camps by Americans

will almost certainly lead to serious trouble sooner or

later in the closed camps. As the months go by and it

becomes quite clear to those now in the camps that they

have virtually no chance of resettlement particularly

in the US, frustration will grow. This will be

exacerbated by the, admittedly small, number of new

arrivals who are accepted by the US. There is also

growing antipathy between those refugees from the south

and those from the north. All this adds up to potencial

serious trouble. The Commissioner of Correctional

Services is aware of the problem and is doing what he

çan to minimise it. He is of course also prepared to

CONFIDENTIAL