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boating season in September/October.
This will not
be the case if arrivals increase significantly.
10.
There is as yet no evidence that the closed camp
policy is deterring illegal departures from Vietnam.
Variations in numbers arriving in the region each month
since July are consistent with variations in 1980 and 1981.
Only a small percentage of those who have arrived since
then admit to having known about the policy before
their departure, but we believe that this picture is
probably distorted because the refugees suspect that if
they admit prior knowledge they would in some way
be penalised. It will be some months before we can
draw any firm conclusions about the effectiveness of
the new policy.
11.
Very low offtake from the closed camps by Americans
will almost certainly lead to serious trouble sooner or
later in the closed camps. As the months go by and it
becomes quite clear to those now in the camps that they
have virtually no chance of resettlement particularly
in the US, frustration will grow. This will be
exacerbated by the, admittedly small, number of new
arrivals who are accepted by the US. There is also
growing antipathy between those refugees from the south
and those from the north. All this adds up to potencial
serious trouble. The Commissioner of Correctional
Services is aware of the problem and is doing what he
çan to minimise it. He is of course also prepared to
CONFIDENTIAL