TNAG-1270-FCO40-1620-Financial-policy-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 186

FCO40 Hong Kong Department Records 聯邦事務部香港部檔案 All

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CONCLUSION.

28. THIS SCHEME COULD, WITH THE AGREEMENT OF THE NOTE-ISSUING BANKS, BE IMPLEMENTED VERY QUICKLY. NO ALTERNATIVE HAS BEEN SUGGESTED. THE POTENTIAL COST TO GOVERNMENT IS NOT EXESSIVE. AT BEST THE SCHEME WOULD SUCCEED IN STABUSING THE EXCHANGE RATE AT ONLY MODEST OR NEGLIGIBLE COST TO THE REAL ECONOMY. AT WORST, CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENCY WOULD NOT BE FULLY RESTORED AND THE MONETARY CONTRACTION MIGHT CONSEQUENTLY BE INTENSE. AT THAT STAGE A DECISION COULD BE TAKEN EITHER TO ACCEPT AND INDEED ENCOURAGE DEMONETISATION, OR TO ABANDON THE SCHEME. EVEN WITH THIS WORST SCENARIO, HTS DAFFICULT TO IMAGINE THAT WE WOULD BE IN A MORE PARLOUS STATE THAN WE ARE AT PRESENT.

YOUDE

LIMITED HD / HKD MR GIFFARD

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