TNAG-1267-FCO40-1616-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 333

CHAPTER 2: THE EXTERNAL SECTOR

Domestic exports

2.1

The value of domestic exports, at $18,629 million in

the first quarter of 1983, was 6% higher than

than in the first

quarter of 1982. Unit value indexes available up to February suggest that this growth was made up of an increase of 4% in

(1) prices

and a growth rate of 28 in real terms. This

latter growth rate, although small, was encouraging, given

that the year-on-year growth rate of domestic exports was negative for four consecutive quarters in 1982.

2.2

It is, however, probably still too early to

interpret the slight improvement in domestic export

performance in the first quarter as clearly indicating the

beginning of an economic recovery. There are several reasons

for this. First, according to information available up to the

fourth quarter of 1982, manufacturing employment continued to

decline and there are as yet no clear signs of a

signs of a substantial

improvement in the first quarter of this year. Second,

retained imports of raw materials and semi-manufactures showed

no growth in real terms in the first quarter, but there are

indications that they have begun to pick up since then.

Third, most indicators point to only a modest recovery in most

of Hong Kong's major markets, although there are more definite

signs of an economic recovery in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany.

/Growth

(1)

Prices are based on unit values which do not take into account changes in the composition or quality of goods traded. Changes in real terms are derived from changes in trade values, after discounting the effect of price changes.

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