CHAPTER 2: THE EXTERNAL SECTOR
Domestic exports
2.1
The value of domestic exports, at $18,629 million in
the first quarter of 1983, was 6% higher than
than in the first
quarter of 1982. Unit value indexes available up to February suggest that this growth was made up of an increase of 4% in
(1) prices
and a growth rate of 28 in real terms. This
latter growth rate, although small, was encouraging, given
that the year-on-year growth rate of domestic exports was negative for four consecutive quarters in 1982.
2.2
It is, however, probably still too early to
interpret the slight improvement in domestic export
performance in the first quarter as clearly indicating the
beginning of an economic recovery. There are several reasons
for this. First, according to information available up to the
fourth quarter of 1982, manufacturing employment continued to
decline and there are as yet no clear signs of a
signs of a substantial
improvement in the first quarter of this year. Second,
retained imports of raw materials and semi-manufactures showed
no growth in real terms in the first quarter, but there are
indications that they have begun to pick up since then.
Third, most indicators point to only a modest recovery in most
of Hong Kong's major markets, although there are more definite
signs of an economic recovery in the United States and the Federal Republic of Germany.
/Growth
(1)
Prices are based on unit values which do not take into account changes in the composition or quality of goods traded. Changes in real terms are derived from changes in trade values, after discounting the effect of price changes.
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