TNAG-1267-FCO40-1616-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 153

HKK

090/4

RECOVED IN REGISTRY MO. ST

2 3 SEP 1983

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GIS/L/F 65 COMM EXDIS (C.C. EX GOVT OFFICES BRUSSELS, GENEVA, WASHINGTON

AND NEW YORK)

(NOTE: FOLLOWING SPEECH BY FINANCIAL SECRETARY IS EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.30pm HK TIME)

Speech by Financial Secretary to the

Foreign Correspondents' Club on 16 September 1983

"

Preamble

The Hong Kong economy has shown encouraging recent . developments. Though there are still problem areas, including the property market, inflation and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar, it is clear that an export-led recovery is

underway.

2.

as

For the purpose of maxing my budget forecast this year, I took the view that the economy of our largest market, the United States, would stage a mild but growing recovery in 1983, with most of the growth occurring in the second half. I assumed that it would grow by 2.5% in real terms for the year a faster a whole, but I said that should it pick up at rate, the budget forecast growth rate of the GDP of 41 for Hong Kong could well turn out to be conservative. This seemed a prudent standpoint. Statistics for the first half year now indicate that the recovery in the US economy has indeed

occurred sooner and been stronger than expected.

consequence, both the US Administration and independent economic forecasters have repeatedly revised upwards their forecasts of real GNP growth, thougn a degree of talling off must be expected. The economic performance and

outlook of

also improved.

3.

A6

various

number of our other major export markets nave

Arising from the revival in consumer demand in these

markets, our domestic export growth nas gathered momentum

since the beginning of this year. The second quarter was much better than the first. Growth is continuing. Comparing the

first half of this year with the same period last year, domestic exports of goods have grown by 148 in money terms,

PANO