HKK
090/4
RECOVED IN REGISTRY MO. ST
2 3 SEP 1983
22
sex23
GIS/L/F 65 COMM EXDIS (C.C. EX GOVT OFFICES BRUSSELS, GENEVA, WASHINGTON
AND NEW YORK)
(NOTE: FOLLOWING SPEECH BY FINANCIAL SECRETARY IS EMBARGOED UNTIL 9.30pm HK TIME)
Speech by Financial Secretary to the
Foreign Correspondents' Club on 16 September 1983
"
Preamble
The Hong Kong economy has shown encouraging recent . developments. Though there are still problem areas, including the property market, inflation and the exchange rate of the Hong Kong dollar, it is clear that an export-led recovery is
underway.
2.
as
For the purpose of maxing my budget forecast this year, I took the view that the economy of our largest market, the United States, would stage a mild but growing recovery in 1983, with most of the growth occurring in the second half. I assumed that it would grow by 2.5% in real terms for the year a faster a whole, but I said that should it pick up at rate, the budget forecast growth rate of the GDP of 41 for Hong Kong could well turn out to be conservative. This seemed a prudent standpoint. Statistics for the first half year now indicate that the recovery in the US economy has indeed
occurred sooner and been stronger than expected.
consequence, both the US Administration and independent economic forecasters have repeatedly revised upwards their forecasts of real GNP growth, thougn a degree of talling off must be expected. The economic performance and
outlook of
also improved.
3.
A6
various
number of our other major export markets nave
Arising from the revival in consumer demand in these
markets, our domestic export growth nas gathered momentum
since the beginning of this year. The second quarter was much better than the first. Growth is continuing. Comparing the
first half of this year with the same period last year, domestic exports of goods have grown by 148 in money terms,
PANO