TNAG-1256-FCO40-1589-Third-countries-and-the-future-of-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 200

13. FUNDAMENTALLY HOWEVER, FEW PEOPLE HERE BELIEVE THAT THE

FORTHCOMING PHASE OF HIGH LEVEL DIPLOMACY WILL ALTER BASIC RELATIONSHIPS WITHIN THE SINO/US/SOVIET TRIANGLE. THE CHINESE, AS INKSTER'S TELELETTER OF 4 OCTOBER, POINTS OUT, WILL STILL

PSUE THEIR TALKS WITH THE RUSSIANS FOR THE SAKE OF THE

MATERIAL BENEFITS THEY GAIN, RELAXATION OF TENSION ON THE

FRONTIER (WHICH SERVES THE DOMESTIC POLITICAL PURPOSES OF THE

LEADERSHIP) AND FOR THE SAKE OF MAINTAINING FREEDOM OF

MANE OUVRE VIS A VIS THE UNITED STATES. THESE CONTACTS ARE

USEFUL AND COULD CONCEIVABLY BEAR FRUIT IN THE LONG TERM.

BUT THERE IS UNLIKELY TO BE A SINO/SOVIET BREAKTHROUGH.

THE AMERICANS FOR THEIR PART WILL STILL NEED TO PURSUE A

DIALOGUE, PARTICULARLY ON ARMS CONTROL, WITH THE RUSSIANS, IRRESPECTIVE OF THE STATE OF RELATIONS WITH PEKING, AND IRREDUCIBLE

DIFFERENCES OVER TAIWAN WILL CONTINUE TO CONSTRAIN THOSE RELATIONS

FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE. CHINA'S NEED TO COUNTER-BALANCE

THE THREAT FROM THE SOVIET UNION CAN BE MET WITHOUT ENTERING

INTO A FORMAL STRATEGIC RELATIONSHIP WITH THE UNITED STATES.

BUT THE LEADERSHIP WILL CONTINUE TO NEED WESTERN TECHNOLOGY

TO FULFILL THEIR MODERNISATION PROGRAMME. WHILE THERE ARE SOME

HERE WHO TALK WISHFULLY ABOUT QUOTE STRATEGIC COOPERATION UNQUOTE

WITH CHINA, MOST U.S. POLICYMAKERS BELIVE THAT IN

CURRENT CIRCUMSTANCE THEIR OBJECTIVES SHOULD BE TO DRAW CHINA

INTO GREATER DE FACTO COOPERATION WITH THE WEST BY A COMBINATION

OF POLITICAL DIALOGUE AND DEVELOPMENT OF ECONOMIC RELATIONS,

AND IT IS IN THIS LIGHT THAT THE SUCCESS OF THE FORTHCOMING

SINO/US EXCHANGES WILL PROBABLY BE MEASURED.

FED PLEASE PASS COPY TO HKØD,

SOVIET DEPT

TRED

RESEARCH DEPT

+ NAD; PUSD; NED;

in Martin, Calinet Office. DIH, DS II, DS 13, MOD Col MW Jenkins, ARMDIC, MOD

SIGNED: S J GOMERSALL

NNNN