TNAG-1240-FCO40-1553-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 71

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Mr Lyscom Planning Staff

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Mr Donald

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FUTURE OF HONG KONG: USE OF OPINION POLLS

1.

Based on

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2841 901

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MKKO 40/1

I have now received replies from both Hong Kong and Peking on the proposal in your minute of 25 July that we should consider commissioning a reputable opinion research company to carry out a comprehensive poll of Hong Kong opinion on the subject of the future I attach copies of Hong Kong telno 1156 and Sir P Cradock's teleletter of 5 August.

2.

As you will note, both Sir P Cradock and Sir E Youde agree this this could be useful, provided that it was not obvious that it had been inspired by either HMG or the Hong Kong Government. They doubt if it will influence the Chinese position in any way, and indeed feel there is a danger that the Chinese might react badly if they felt we were stirring up Hong Kong opinion against them. But they agree with your original point that it could be helpful in giving us a better idea of what the people of Hong Kong want, and what they will accept if necessary.

3. We can now start to give this idea more detailed consideration Perhaps the next step would be to go back to Hong Kong and Peking with some specific proposals on questions, with details of how the poll would be funded, who might conduct it and how long the whole process would take. I would hope that at this stage we need not involve any outside organisation. The situation is so sensitive that I would like to keep knowledge of the proposal to the smallest possible number within the Office until we have taken a definite decision on how and when we want to conduct the poll.

Бир

22 August 1983

CODE 18-77

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R D Clift

Hong Kong Department