TNAG-1238-FCO40-1551-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 70

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ene situation in Hong Kong, leading to serious economic decline and social

disorder there, it would reduce, in the eyes of many Americans, the credi-

bility of PRC claims that Taiwan's reunification would not adversely affect

U.S. interests on the island. It could also prompt American business leaders

to be more cautious in ventures in the PRC.

Despite strong American interest in Hong Kong's future, however, current

circumstances appear to compel the United States Government to restrict

its involvement to the role of an interested bystander during the current

Chinese-British talks regarding Hong Kong's future. Neither London nor

Beijing has publicly indicated any interest in American support or involve-

ment, as both sides presumably judge that the discussions are complicated

enough without injecting outside forces into the equation.

One suggested option calls for the United States to intercede with

China privately in order to encourage a restrained PRC policy toward Hong

Kong that appears more likely to preserve the economic and social status

quo there.

However, Peking is judged to be less than receptive to such an

American demarche over an issue of Chinese sovereignty at a time when PRC

leaders see the United States repeatedly affronting Chinese sovereignty with

arms sales to Taiwan.

It is possible that U.S. officials could attempt to influence the

course of events indirectly, especially through American leaders in business

and multinational corporations that have a strong interest in Hong Kong and

enjoy good ties with PRC leaders. These executives might be encouraged

to underscore in conversations with PRC leaders the advantages of a very

cautious and consistent Chinese policy regarding reassertion of Chinese

rule that presumably would help insure continued business confidence

there.