CRS-15
ene situation in Hong Kong, leading to serious economic decline and social
disorder there, it would reduce, in the eyes of many Americans, the credi-
bility of PRC claims that Taiwan's reunification would not adversely affect
U.S. interests on the island. It could also prompt American business leaders
to be more cautious in ventures in the PRC.
Despite strong American interest in Hong Kong's future, however, current
circumstances appear to compel the United States Government to restrict
its involvement to the role of an interested bystander during the current
Chinese-British talks regarding Hong Kong's future. Neither London nor
Beijing has publicly indicated any interest in American support or involve-
ment, as both sides presumably judge that the discussions are complicated
enough without injecting outside forces into the equation.
One suggested option calls for the United States to intercede with
China privately in order to encourage a restrained PRC policy toward Hong
Kong that appears more likely to preserve the economic and social status
quo there.
However, Peking is judged to be less than receptive to such an
American demarche over an issue of Chinese sovereignty at a time when PRC
leaders see the United States repeatedly affronting Chinese sovereignty with
arms sales to Taiwan.
It is possible that U.S. officials could attempt to influence the
course of events indirectly, especially through American leaders in business
and multinational corporations that have a strong interest in Hong Kong and
enjoy good ties with PRC leaders. These executives might be encouraged
to underscore in conversations with PRC leaders the advantages of a very
cautious and consistent Chinese policy regarding reassertion of Chinese
rule that presumably would help insure continued business confidence
there.